There are so many angles to the weekly point spread puzzle that it makes sense to look beyond current streaks to identify trends and patterns. Late spread covers are not flukes, but rather a pattern. Jonathan Smith’s Michigan State has won four of their last five games by unlikely margins, and each one was achieved through the “backdoor.” Smith may have done so knowingly or unknowingly. He kicked what appeared to be a meaningless, last-minute field goal of 34 yards by Martin Covington at Indiana two week ago with 33 second left. The final margin was 25 points. And the spread was 26.5. Last week against Michigan, backup QB Alessio Milivojevic fired a 21-yard TD pass to Michael Masunas with seven seconds left to cut the final margin to 31-20 … and inside the 13.5-point spread. Milivojevic led a 75-yard TD run that culminated with his short-sneak TD at Nebraska on October 4, cutting the final margin down to 38-27… within the 12.5-point differential. Aidan Chiles had scored a 75-yard touchdown to Omarismith with 2:39 remaining in the previous game at USC two weeks before. This brought the Spartans within 45-31…and inside the 18.5-point margin. We are not certain, especially because there is no double-digit cushion. The Spartans are not to be dismissed just because of some late covers. As we did throughout October, the “point spread reversal listing” is where we identify teams based off a different spread result from the two previous spread results. Again, this is another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround … good or bad.Bet college football at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass with a winning $5 wager:Point spread reversal plus (+)The teams: Akron, Boston College, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Missouri State, Northern Illinois, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Penn State, Rice, Rutgers, South Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin*Through games of Oct. 25. The challenge as the season progresses is to distinguish which teams have managed a random cover of the spread with no real indication of an upcoming advance or the beginning of a late-season rush. If the latter? We don’t consider it an indication to buy a team, such as Oregon State. The Beavers had never covered the spread before and they only managed to do so because FCS Lafayette appeared on their schedule in October. We may pay more attention if we were to look at South Alabama. Major Applewhite and his Jags have shown a lot of promise all season long, and their OT win over Georgia State might be the turning point. Penn State and Wisconsin have also impressed us in recent Big Ten games. Both were among the biggest disappointments during the first half of this season, but they’ve shown a greater edge recently. Point spread reversal minus (-)The teams: Arkansas, Clemson, Colorado, Duke, New Mexico State, SMU, South Florida, Temple, UConn, Western Michigan*Through games of Oct. 25.It’s a thinner list for the above grouping this week. Clemson’s recent loss to SMU is largely because of the absence of QB Cade Klubnik. While there is no official confirmation, there are reports that Klubnik may be able to play Saturday at Duke if his ankle heals enough. We’re also watching Arkansas and interim HC Bobby Petrino, and we wonder where the Hogs go in November after kicking away a late lead against Auburn, a third straight loss since Sam Pittman walked the plank, with distractions and portal decisions mounting. Colorado might also bear watching, as the 53-7 loss at Utah might have been the worst effort of the Deion Sanders regime and regional observers are wondering if the earlier momentum from his tenure is lost.Point spread win streaks5: Miami-Ohio, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Troy4: Hawaii, Kansas State, Kennesaw State, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Washington State, Maryland and Southern Miss (3-0-1 last four)3: Arkansas State, BYU, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Houston, Wyoming2: Boise State, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, North Carolina, North Texas, Ohio State, UCF, Vanderbilt*Through games of Oct. 25.As always, we hope we’re not too late with some of those above. Marcus Freeman is known for his point spread expertise, which has been a hallmark of his time at Notre Dame. Jake Dickert’s Wake Forest and Washington State have both been surprising this season. Further down the list, Bill Belichick’s North Carolina squad still isn’t winning outright, but efforts the past two games (and resultant spread covers at Cal and home vs. Virginia) have been much improved from earlier in the season.Point spread losing streaks6: Baylor5: Nebraska, Texas State 4: Buffalo, Florida State, Fresno State, Navy, Oklahoma State, ULM3: California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia State, Iowa State, La Tech, Liberty, LSU, Old Dominion2: Arizona, Bowling Green, Charlotte, Kansas, Illinois, Liberty, NC State, Purdue, San Jose State, Texas, Syracuse, UL-Lafayette *Through games of Oct. 25.For the moment, Baylor has overtaken Penn State and some other early-season underachievers as the worse spread team in the country. Navy hasn’t won a straight game since September 13 against Tulsa, but the Midshipmen still haven’t lost either. Always keep an eye out for early signs of a slump in teams that were once high-flying but are now fading fast. Kansas, who missed the playoffs last year, was expected to be a contender for the CFP this season. However, the Jayhawks’ defense has been leaking profusely, resulting in four losses that have reduced them to minor bowl consideration. Similarly, Illinois was fancied by some to be a fringe CFP contender this season, but after dropping a third game of the campaign last weekend in a subpar effort at Washington, the Fighting Illini look instead bound for another minor bowl.Away from spread plus (+) past two decisionsKennesaw State +25.00San Diego State +23.00Marshall +21.25Kansas State +21.00Washington State +18.75 Coastal Carolina +18.25North Texas +18.25Central Michigan +17.50 Western Michigan +13.50Hawaii +13.25James Madison +13.25,UCF +13.25 Wake Forest +13.25Texas A&M +13.00Cincinnati +12.75Utah +12.75Wyoming +12.25BYU +11.50 Iowa +11.25 Southern Miss +11.25 Indiana +11.00Stanford +9.75Troy +9.50Pitt +9.25Temple +9.25North Carolina +8.75 Houston +8.25Northwestern +8.00Boise State +7.50Arkansas State +7.25UAB +7.00*Through games of Oct. 25We see various under-the-radar teams sneaking into the two-week “AFS” chart each week, and this edition is no different. Many ‘cappers may have overlooked nondescript Sun Belt teams like Marshall and Coastal Carolina early in the season. But suddenly, the Thundering Herd (and Chantacleers) are among the most successful spread-overachievers of recent weeks. San Diego State, Washington State and Virginia are also consistently on the “plus” list. We might also take note of Kirk Ferentz and his Iowa side that might be getting lost in the Big Ten hoopla with all of the attention being paid to Indiana and Ohio State, but the Hawkeyes have another roughhouse unit and are capable of pounding some of the loop’s also-rans into submission, as was the case last weekend when claiming Floyd of Rosedale yet again over Minnesota.Away from spread minus (-) past two decisionsFresno State -27.00Old Dominion -22.50Florida State -19.25Bowling Green -19.00 Colorado State -16.25ULM -15.75Buffalo -14.50 Rutgers -14.25 Charlotte -13.50Iowa State -13.50LSU -13.50Nebraska -13.00Virginia -12.50UCLA -12.00Delaware -11.0,0Rice -11.00Western Kentucky -11.00Colorado -10.75Memphis -10.75 Texas State -10.75Troy +9.75NC State -9.50Baylor -9.25Liberty -8.00Purdue -8.00Utah State -8.00Florida -8.75Illinois -7.75West Virginia -7.75*Through games of Oct. 25.Keep in mind one big scoreline is always apt to distort a two-week average; take Rutgers, destroyed two weeks ago by Oregon 56-10 before recovering to beat Purdue. Other teams, on the other hand, could be a sign of a trend, like Eddie George’s Bowling Green. After a good start and a lot of fanfare surrounding its new mascot, Pudge, the team appears to be losing It is also interesting to note that Virginia appears on this list, despite only having one loss in the season. The Cavaliers have, however, won three games by overtime, and their chances as a margin-team look shaky, after barely surviving as a significant favourite against Washington State and North Carolina in the past two week. The Cavs are not a team that can be trusted to carry big numbers. This week, Colorado State is a shade/fade alert. We’d like to take a break from everything CSU football. The program has always thought of itself as being a major one. We’re not sure about a team who, among other things has three completely separate shades of uniforms. CSU, despite its fashion sense, has always considered itself to be too big to play in the Mountain West. Its performance on the field does not support this opinion. So, it jumped at an offer to join a restructured Pac-12 for next The Rams won’t be moving forward with much enthusiasm, as they just fired HC Jay Norvell and did not rally for Tyson Summers when he made his debut against Wyoming last week in a 28 0 loss in Laramie. Mountain West analysts were surprised that QB Brayden F.-Nicolosi, who was benched by the Mountain West in September, had been deemed overrated. However, backup Jackson Brousseau did not seem to be a more viable option. CSU is now considering Darius Curry as a possible replacement for the over-sized QB. However, there do not seem to be any other viable options. The offense has struggled all season. They rank 113th in the nation and 119th when it comes to scoring (19.1 points per game). A late-season rally, which saw the roster and coaching staff look for ways out of Fort Collins suggests that things might Next game: November 8 against UNLVLean : FadeFresno stateA quick glance at the Mountain West rankings might make you wonder why we are so skeptical about the Bulldogs. They’re 5-3, and one win away from bowl eligibility. However, the last two performances have been abysmal, with a humiliating defeat to a bad Colorado State squad and a listless, shutout loss last week against San Diego State. Matt Entz’s foundation is showing cracks, perhaps. He was hired from Lincoln Riley’s USC team after a successful tenure as North Dakota State head coach, which included FCS titles for 2019 and 2021. Many in the Central Valley and Bulldog players reportedly hoped that Tim Skipper would be given the full-time job. Fresno should be concerned with the recent trends. The next game is Saturday against Boise State. FadeSan Francisco StateSometimes the worst thing you can do is watch a bad team. SDSU’s dominant defense, which is reminiscent of some of the top units of the Aztecs’ decorated Rocky Long era, has helped the Aztecs to a quick turnaround. SDSU hasn’t lost or missed a cover in five games since the Pullman debacle, and it now boasts three shutouts just past midseason. The Aztecs are ranked ninth in the nation in defense (only 255 YPG) and second in scoring (10.4 PPG), behind only Ohio State. Jayden Denegal is a modestly improved Michigan transfer QB who has made a modest impact on the offense. SDSU has a win margin of 26 points per game in its Mountain West league games. Could this team be a sleeper to sneak into an at-large Group of Five spot in the CFP. Next game Saturday vs. WyomingLean : ShadeSouthern MissWe’re talking about Golden Eagles Head Coach Charles Huff. He led Marshall to an unexpected Sun Belt championship a year ago, as well as 10-1-1 in the spread. We’d have thought Herd administrators would have done everything they could to keep Huff in Huntington, but after they dragged their feet on a contract extension after Marshall’s win in the Belt title game last December, Huff decided to take the offer (and a reported $200K annual raise) to move to Hattiesburg, where the USM program had fallen into disrepair while Marshall was left without much of a team or coach for its Independence Bowl date against Army, which the Herd eventually had to pull out. Huff was able to bring more than 20 Herd football players, including Braylon Braxton the QB, to USM. Braxton has now thrown 37 touchdown passes and only six interceptions in his 1.5 years at Marshall and USM. This Marshall team is looking very similar to Huff’s Marshall of last year. Next game: Nov. 8 at Arkansas State Lean: ShadeWashington StateAs noted earlier with the Aztecs, there is always a danger to watching a team play a particularly bad game, or two. Take the Cougars who, in consecutive weeks in September, allowed 59 to North Texas before allowing 59 to UW at the Apple Cup. WSU’s efforts were so impressive that it was hard to blame anyone who dismissed the team. The Cougs are a totally different team now, having won four consecutive spreads. Skeptics still remain who claim that the schedule was against the recent opponents Ole Miss, and Virginia. Both were in the rankings, and both were in the middle of heated conference races. It was a given that a non-conference against WSU would be a disappointment, as it would fall in the middle. Ole Miss’ insiders were particularly impressed with WSU’s speed and execution. They thought they could have pulled off a big upset. Virginia was probably more fortunate, as they trailed almost the entire game and needed a safety at the end to win. Last week, MAC rival Toledo was beaten in the Palouse. Schedule breaks? Perhaps. But under first-year HC Jimmy Rogers, who’s coming off of a successful run at Big Sky South Dakota State, the Cougs can argue they’re the most balanced team in the country while QB Zevi Eckhaus, who impressed in his first real action in the Holiday Bowl against Syracuse last December, has emerged as a capable dual-threat pilot for the offense. Next game Saturday at Oregon StateLean Shade
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