Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!We are exactly ONE WEEK away from Thanksgiving, and we have a lot to be thankful for tonight we get to watch Josh Allen play, and let me just say, there is no one in the NFL better at playing Thursday football than the Josh Allen. The Bills quarterback has gone 8-0 in his career in Thursday games, which is the best record by any quarterback in NFL history. Allen will be putting that unblemished record on the line when the Bills face the Texans at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime. In today’s newsletter, we’ll have some picks and best bets for the game, plus we have some playoff projections. As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let’s get to the rundown. 1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Bills at Texans
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The Texans started the season 0-3, but they’ve clawed their way to 5-5, which has put them right back in the AFC playoff race. However, if they want to stay there, they’re likely going to have to pull off an upset against the Bills (7-3) as 5.5-point underdogs.
The Texans will again be without C.J. Stroud, who’s missing his third straight game due to a concussion. With Stroud out, Houston will once again turn to Davis Mills. If the Texans are going to win, they’re going to have to do something no NFL team has ever done: beat Josh Allen on a Thursday. Will Allen’s incredible undefeated streak continue or will Houston pull off the upset? Here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:Why the Bills can win: The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, so nothing is going to come easy for the Bills. If the Bills are smart, they’ll try and get James Cook involved early. The Bills are 5-0 this year when he tops 100 yards, but 2-3 when he doesn’t. The Texans defense will likely be so locked in on stopping Josh Allen, so that should open things up for Cook, and Buffalo will certainly need to take advantage of that. Why the Texans can win: If you can get your rushing attack going against the Bills, you can beat them. The Bills are surrendering an average of 153 yards per game on the ground this year, which is the second-worst number in the NFL, ranking ahead of only the Bengals. With a backup quarterback starting, it will be vital for Woody Marks and/or Nick Chubb to have a huge game. The Texans are 4-0 this season when they rush for at least 125 yards, so if they can get there, that should put them in a position to pull off the upset. This game feels like a situation where the team that runs the ball better will end up winning. You can get a full preview of the game from Jordan Dajani.If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM):
ONE WR PROP I LIKE: Tyrell Shavers OVER 22.5 yards (-115): Shavers had a breakout game on Sunday with four catches for 90 yards against the Buccaneers, which came out of nowhere considering he didn’t even have 90 receiving yards on the season going into Week 11. Going into this game, the Bills won’t have pass-catchers Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel or Mecole Hardman, which means we could see Shavers put up some big numbers once again. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Ka’imi Fairbairn OVER 6.5 points (-145): Fairbairn has missed the Texans’ past two games with a quad injury, but he’s expected to play. And if he’s on the field, he’s probably going to score a lot of points. The last time he was on the field came in Week 9 when he scored 15 points against the Broncos. In Week 8, he scored 14 points against the 49ers. Fairbairn has gone over 6.5 points in seven of the eight games he’s played this year, and if not for a missed field goal in Week 3, he would have gone over the total in all eight games. If you’re wondering how my props are doing this year, I’m 24-24 (9-13 on kicker props and 15-11 on all other props).Now, it’s time for some picks. PICKS FOR ‘TNF’Pete Prisco’s pick: Bills 24-17 over TexansTyler Sullivan’s pick: Bills 24-20 over TexansJordan Dajani’s pick: Bills 24-14 over TexansJared Dubin’s pick: Bills 21-10 over TexansBreech’s pick: Bills 20-17 over TexansWe’ve got some more picks for the game over on our CBSSports.com predictions page.
2. NFL playoff projections heading into Week 12: Chiefs miss postseason for first time with Patrick MahomesNow that we’ve passed mid-November, that means we’re officially allowed to talk about the playoffs without sounding ridiculous, so that’s exactly what we’re going to do. Since everyone probably wants to know who’s going to make the playoffs, we had Stephen Oh of SportsLine simulate the rest of the season so that we could find that out. Here are the 14 teams projected to make the playoffs with one VERY NOTABLE team being left out: AFC1. Patriots2. Broncos3. Colts4. Ravens5. Bills6. Chargers7. JaguarsFirst team out: Chiefs
That’s right, our projection has the Chiefs out of the playoffs. It might sound crazy, but the Chiefs have several things working against them. For one, the first tiebreaker for a wild-card team is head-to-head. The wild-card teams in this projection all have one thing in common: They all beat the Chiefs. So Kansas City will be losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to almost every contender. Also, the Chiefs have a conference record of just 2-4, which is the worst record of any AFC contender heading into Week 12. The reason I’m telling you that is because conference record is the second tiebreaker. With the two tiebreakers working against them, the Chiefs are going to have an uphill battle to make the playoffs. NFC1. Eagles2. Rams3. Buccaneers4. Lions5. Seahawks6. 49ers7. PackersFirst team out: Bears
3. NFL Week 12 picks: Shedeur Sanders wins his first career start
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It’s now time for everyone’s favorite part of the newsletter, where Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani and Tyler Sullivan give me their picks and then I give them to you. Last week, Prisco and Dajani tied for the best record at 10-5 and Sullivan came in last at 8-7. I’ll let you do the math on where I ended up. Anyway, if you’re new here, here’s how things work: I’ll give you one Week 12 pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 12 selections. If you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life.Pete Prisco — Chiefs (-3.5) 26-20 over Colts. “This is the game of the week, featuring a Colts team coming off a bye against a Chiefs team that can’t afford another loss. The Colts have rolled on offense this season, but this is a spot where the Kansas City defense steps up and plays well. The Chiefs win it with a desperate season-saving showing as Patrick Mahomes bounces back. ” Prisco’s full Week 12 picks are here. Tyler Sullivan — Browns (+3) 20-16 over Raiders. “The big storyline in this game is Shedeur Sanders getting his first career start after Dillon Gabriel landed in concussion protocol last week. Sanders didn’t look good when he came in for Gabriel last week, but this pick isn’t really about who is or is not under center for Cleveland. Instead, it has everything to do with the Raiders, who look lost.” Sullivan’s full Week 12 picks are here. Jordan Dajani — Packers 24-20 over Vikings (+6.5). “Which team do you have more faith in? The Vikings or Packers? That’s a tough question. … I’ll take the Packers to win this game, but I’m wondering if 6.5 points is too much. McCarthy is 2-0 SU and ATS in his career on the road, so I’m calling a back-door cover.” Dajani’s full slate of picks will be released on Friday, but you can get a preview here. John Breech — Cardinals (+3) 23-20 over Jaguars. “If Jacksonville has had one weakness this season, it’s stopping the pass. The Jags are surrendering 236.9 passing yards per game, which is the seventh-worst number in the NFL. In Week 10, they let Davis Mills throw for nearly 300 yards. Mills had not started an NFL game in three years before torching the Jaguars, so any QB is capable of doing anything against this defense. You know who loves to throw the ball? The Arizona Cardinals. Jacoby Brissett is coming off a game where he just completed an NFL record 47 PASSES. I’m taking the Cards in an UPSET.” You can find the rest of my Week 12 picks here. For more Week 12 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page. 4. Upset alert: Chiefs could be in trouble; Texans could pull off shockerIt’s time for our weekly upset alert, which is where Tyler Sullivan identifies several games on the schedule that could end with an upset. This week, Sullivan thinks five games could result in upsets.
Let’s check out the three most interesting ones on his list. Colts (+3.5) over Chiefs. The Chiefs have played far better at home compared to on the road (4-1 straight up versus 1-3 straight up), but Indy is a different beast entirely. The club currently ranks first in points (32.1), yards (396.9) per game and yards per play (6.4). Patrick Mahomes is averaging 28.6 points per game at home this season but has been uncharacteristically spotty. If the Chiefs find themselves in a hole, the Colts could simply lean on Jonathan Taylor to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands down the stretch. Texans (+5.5) over Bills. Buffalo’s defense is reeling at the moment, allowing 30 or more points in back-to-back games. The Bills’ run defense has been abysmal, surrendering 5.4 yards per carry (second most in the NFL). That could result in a strong day for the Texans on the ground, which could help tip the scales in favor of an upset.Falcons (+1.5) over Saints. Kirk Cousins will get the start for Atlanta, and while he’s certainly well into the back end of his career, this is a game where Bijan Robinson could carry them to victory. In his career, Robinson has enjoyed playing against New Orleans, totaling five touchdowns in four career games. If the defense can keep Tyler Shough in check, there’s a path for Atlanta to snap this losing streak. If you want to see Sullivan’s full list of possible upsets, we’ve got that here. 5. Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandin Cooks are available: Landing spots for the two free agent WRs
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If there are any playoff contenders out there in need of some receiving help, there are a couple of former Pro Bowlers who are now available with Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham Jr. out there. The Saints released Cooks on Wednesday, while Beckham just finished serving a six-game suspension that ended in Week 11. (Beckham was originally suspended in 2024 but had been appealing the ban, so he didn’t actually serve it until this year.) Cooks is 32 and Beckham is 33, so no one should expect either guy to come in and dominate, but both receivers are certainly capable of carving out a small role for themselves in the right offense.
With that in mind, let’s check out some landing spots, starting with Cooks (via Zach Pereles):Bills. Buffalo has been willing to take chances on later-career wideouts midseason, including Amari Cooper last year and Hardman this year. Perhaps, given the injuries, inconsistencies and other issues at the position, the Bills would consider bringing Cooks into the mix. Rams. Reunion time! Cooks played for Sean McVay’s Rams in 2018 and 2019, and more than half a decade later, he could prove a helpful addition for another ring-chasing McVay team.Steelers. The Steelers have needed a secondary receiver all year. Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson, the younger options, haven’t filled that void. Perhaps a veteran like Cooks — the type of player Mike Tomlin tends to give the benefit of the doubt — could be of use.We have a total of five landing spots for Cooks, and you can check out the full list here. Now, here are three possible spots for Beckham:Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes’ arsenal includes Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown and Tyquan Thornton, but could Andy Reid be interested in adding a veteran wideout to help for this playoff push?Broncos. The Broncos could use some help at receiver. Beckham isn’t an addition who automatically makes the Broncos a top- 10 passing offense, but he could be a reliable target for Bo Nix. 49ers. Brandon Aiyuk has yet to return after tearing his ACL last year, plus Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings have missed time this season due to injuries. … The 49ers reside in the toughest division in the NFL, so why not take a flier on a player that helped your rival win a Super Bowl a few years ago?Jordan Dajani came up with a total of five possible landing spots for Beckham, and you can check out the full list here.
6. Extra points: Could Joe Burrow actually play this week? It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. Joe Burrow debut could be coming soon. The Bengals QB was surprisingly a full participant at practice on Wednesday after being limited all last week. The fact that he’s now fully able to participate in practice means he’s just taken one giant step closer to a possible return. I was actually at Bengals’ practice on Wednesday, and if you want to know when Burrow might return to game action, I broke everything down here. Michael Penix Jr. out for the season. The Falcons’ nightmare season went from bad to worse this week with the news that Penix will miss the rest of the season after suffering a partially torn ACL (injury details here). The loss of Penix means Kirk Cousins will take over at QB for the rest of the season. The good news for Cousins is that Atlanta has two very winnable games coming up with the Saints in Week 12 followed by the Jets in Week 13. Saints likely headed to Paris. There’s a good chance the NFL will be adding a game in Paris to the 2026 schedule, and if that happens, it looks like the Saints will be playing in it. Saints president Dennis Lauscha leaked the details out this week, “You might hear in the next couple weeks that we might be having a game internationally and that game may be in Paris,” Lauscha said, via NOLA.com. The Saints will likely be the home team, so one of the opponents on their 2026 home schedule will also be making the trip to France if the game happens. The Saints’ home schedule consists of the Panthers, Falcons, Buccaneers, Browns, Steelers, Packers, Vikings, plus a TBD AFC West team and a TBD NFC West team. Senior nominees for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The Hall of Fame’s senior class started with 182 candidates, and now, the list is down to nine with Ken Anderson, Roger Craig, Henry Ellard, L.C. Greenwood, Joe Jacoby, Eddie Meador, Stanley Morgan, Steve Tasker and Otis Taylor all being named semifinalists this week. This list will be trimmed down to three finalists and those three names will be revealed in December.
2025-11-20 18:00:24
