Week 11 was my best week, with a 3-1-1 record against the spread. The Miami Dolphins beat the Arizona Cardinals in Madrid. The San Francisco 49ers crushed the Las Vegas Raiders. And the Dallas Cowboys barely beat the Las Vegas Raiders. Jamey Winston tied the game by beating the Green Bay Packers exactly by seven points. City Shedeur Sands makes his first start of the career in a game where the Under is almost certain to be the result. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. This week, here’s what I think. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.Odds courtesy of FanDuel SportsbookTop five picks ATS record: 26-28-1Overall ATS record: 88-75-1Straight up record: 113-50-1Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Davis Mills, the Titans’ quarterback, kept the Houston Texans at bay. I’d argue that it was their most complete game of the season. However, Cam Ward lost his WR1 in Calvin Ridley for the remainder of the season, leaving him with Van Jefferson, rookies and practice squaders at wideout.
Seattle has just suffered a close, but deflating loss against the Rams. Sam Darnold had thrown four interceptions with zero touchdowns. The Seahawks will be angry about last week’s loss to the Titans, who only won one game. Seattle loves playing on the road, going 10-1 in its last 11 games away from home, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed are going to present a problem for this Titans secondary that is missing their top three cornerbacks from Week 1.The pick: Seahawks -13.5Projected score: Seahawks 27-10Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
The narrative surrounding the Bears is out of hand. It’s true that the Bears lead the NFL for takeaways (22), and they have managed to win five games this season when trailing by two minutes in the final quarter. However, it took a miracle to beat the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bears have a strong team but aren’t a Super Bowl candidate. With that in mind, I think the Steelers will win this week. Aaron Rodgers has a fractured non-throwing hand. It’s all about his pain tolerance and whether he can protect him. The 41-year old is unlikely to sit out the game against his former opponent, so the offense may struggle. The Bears have a 6-2 ATS record in their last eight games after starting the season 0-2 against the spread. Give me Chicago.
The pick: Bears -2.5Projected score: Bears 23-17Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Kirk Cousins, 37, will be the Falcons’ quarterback this season after Michael Penix Jr. was forced to retire due to an injury to his knee. Cousins is not the backup quarterback that he should be. Cousins’ only start of the season was a 34-10 defeat to the Dolphins. He completed 21 out 31 passes, resulting in 173 yards, but no touchdowns. The offense managed 213 yards. The Falcons’ defense has also been a source of concern, having just let Bryce Young set a franchise record by throwing for 448 yard in their home. As for New Orleans, Tyler Shough just became the first Saints rookie quarterback to ever throw for 280 yards in a game, and added two touchdowns in an upset victory over the team that just defeated Atlanta on Sunday in the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five divisional games, so let’s board the Shough hype train together.The pick: Saints -1.5Projected score: Saints 23-16Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Many people will pick the Buccaneers in almost any matchup as an underdog, and I understand why. The Bucs were 17-9 underdogs in the 2023 season since Baker Mayfield’s arrival, but the loss to the Buffalo Bills last week worried me. The Buccaneers defense allowed 414 total yardage while Mayfield was only able to throw for 173 yards. Mayfield has a 1-7 record in primetime with the Buccaneers. I will take the Rams this week.
I believe that despite the Rams’ win over the Seahawks, they are trying to correct the record about their offensive. Matthew Stafford and his team only converted two third-downs. Seattle outgained them by 414 yards. On Sunday night I predict that the Rams will dominate the Buccaneers, and further their claim as Super Bowl favourites. The pick: Rams -6.5Projected score: Rams 27-20Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
After a season high 41 points against the Cardinals, Brock Purdy returned to the lineup. He now returns to San Francisco in primetime to face a beatable opponent. Bryce Young, who threw 448 yards in a record-breaking performance against the No. Remember that he morphs into Peyton Manning when he plays against the Falcons. Keep in mind that Atlanta had to go to overtime to beat Carolina despite Young’s outstanding performance. I’m betting on the 49ers because it’s the “Christian McCaffrey” game. This is the first time that the star runningback will face his old team since being traded in 2020. He’s also in the middle of an incredible season and leads the NFL in touches (267) and scrimmage yard (1,439). You know that he will have a big game.
The pick: 49ers -7Projected score: 49ers 30-16Other Week 12 picksBills (-5.5) 24-14 over TexansPatriots (-6.5) 27-17 over BengalsChiefs (-3.5) 26-20 over ColtsRavens 23-20 over Jets (+13.5)Lions (-10.5) 30-17 over GiantsPackers 24-20 over Vikings (+6.5)Jaguars (-2.5) 26-20 over CardinalsRaiders 17-14 over Browns (+3.5)Eagles 24-21 over Cowboys (+3.5)
2025-11-21 11:00:45
