Jets vs. Patriots: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 11’s Thursday Night Football matchup

Our largest Thursday Night point spread is for Week 11, New York Jets at New England Patriots. Football Only Buffalo vs Miami had a score above 12 this year. If you want to see a great game, this is something to be concerned about. But there’s still plenty of angles to attack this game from a spread perspective, as well as prop betting and anytime touchdown scorer picks, especially if we think we know the game script and how this might play out.Click here to bet on Jets vs. Patriots at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets if their first bet wins, along with three months of NBA League Pass:
If you’re new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Top straight bets (spread, total, or money line) Patriots -12.5We gave the Patriots the -11.5 this week in our Bet It Now article. We’re not backing away from that, though. It’s almost certain to go up to -13, and possibly even as high as two touchdowns for the Pats if they keep getting peppered. New York likes to throw the ball as much as possible, but they aren’t very good at it. This Justin Fields led offense is just the way it is. Mike Vrabel’s Patriots’ defense is the best in the NFL at stopping rushing yards. They are also top five for yards per carry. If you are looking for some hope for the Jets’ rush offense, they have allowed 4.8 yards per run over the last three games. The Jets will have a much better chance of winning if they are able run the football. But if Fields must throw and the Jets cannot, then it could be a bad day for New York. New York’s defense is unlikely to stop New England. Last week’s Jets win was largely due to the Jets’ terrible defense. New York’s win was aided by a number of special teams touchdowns. The Jets need to have more luck in order to pull off a major upset on Thursday, and I don’t think the Pats are going make a lot of mistakes. Drake Maye should carve this defense up and the Pats could park the bus for the second half, and then run the ball. They can hope Henderson makes a few more long runs to finish things off against Tampa Bay. Give me Pats by at least 20. You can bet on the Patriots to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn’t win:Jets vs. Patriots player propsTreVeyon Henderson longest rush Over 14.5 yardsHenderson became the “full-time starter” three games ago (we’re qualifying it a bit since the Patriots clearly like to limit his touches — he’s not a full-blown workhorse). Henderson’s 38 carries totaled 277 yards, averaging out to 7.3 yards a carry. Henderson had a 10.5 yard average per carry against the Buccaneers, who have one of NFL’s top rushing defenses. He’s never going to be so efficient, but Henderson is a big play threat, who will take a minimum number of carries and produce huge numbers. The Jets have allowed 5.1 yards per carry in their last 3 games, which is worse than the 21st place (4.5 yards). This number is two yards lower than what the market has predicted, so we are all over it. Henderson should get about 20 total touches with Rhamondre out. I would expect him to have 14+ carries this week for the third time in a row unless it’s a complete mess by halftime. Henderson is likely to have already completed a long run, if this is the case.  Mack Hollins More than 37.5 receiving yardThis number is beginning to increase and could be closer to 40 before the game starts. Hollins may not be a special receiver but what is he good at? As a receiver, Hollins is good at blocking. You know what it gets him when the Pats want to run the football a lot? Hollins took 79% of the snaps for the Patriots during Week 10. This was the highest percentage of any Patriots receiver. Hollins will likely get a lot of looks if he’s getting 75% or more snaps. Justin Fields longest pass under 26.5 yardThere are no Jets passing props because Aaron Glenn still hasn’t announced who will be the Jets starting quarterback. We all assume Justin Fields but there is a real possibility that Taylor could start the game. In an ideal scenario, Fields would start, then be benched, or not even start, but get used in rushing packages. Fields has had four games with less than 54 passing yardage this season, so this prop is way too long. This prop has multiple options and frankly, I was surprised that it was still available on Thursday morning. TNF any time touchdown scorer propsHunter Henry (+135)With a game total 43.5, which looks like it will come down, as well as the possibility of a big blowout that could lead to minimal Patriots pass attempts, we need to be cautious with our anytime touchdown scorer wagers. This is especially true when it comes to New England’s pass catchers. New England could decide to throw more near the goal line without Stevenson, and Terrell Jennings is injured. Instead of just pounding Henderson. Hunter, who is ranked in the NFL’s top 10 tight end targets within the 10-yard-line, presents a serious matchup issue for the Jets defense. The Jets have allowed the second most touchdowns this season to tight ends. D’Ernest Johnson – 425This is an extremely long shot, not only because Johnson has a score probability of over 4-1, but also because he is not on the Patriots’ active roster. Johnson, who played six snaps against Tampa last week for New England, was returned to the practice squad. There’s a good chance that Johnson will be added to the active roster today, with Jennings being questionable. The Patriots will be running the ball against a poor Jets defense, and with a big lead. We would love to have more money on a back that could get garbage time carries. This number will drop to below 3-1 if Jennings is not playing (which won’t happen until later Thursday). We are betting on the game now knowing that even if Johnson isn’t playing or not elevated, this bet will still be void.

2025-11-13 16:10:25