Amid the drama of ‘Spygate’, it’s worth remembering that Hull City are in this Championship play-off final too. They have been in it this whole time.The Tigers also have a sensational story in this Championship promotion race. This time last year, they were one game away from dropping to League One. A year later – and they’re one game from the Premier League.
They have gone from surviving in the Championship on goal difference last season to becoming the first sixth-placed team to reach the play-off final since 2019.
And a deeper look into Hull’s season shows this team are defying logic, not just recent history.If matches were decided by Expected Goals (xG), a dataset right at the heart of the modern game, then it would tell a different story of Hull’s season.
Hull should, according to the data, have finished second-bottom this term. The relegation they nearly faced last season should have happened. Instead, they are close to being promoted.
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This is how the Championship table should look, according to xG
The numbers are staggering. Hull should have picked up 13 fewer points than they actually did – and should have conceded around 16 more goals.
Why do these numbers exist? Well normally, you put it down to a strong defensive structure or an impressive goalkeeper. Except they don’t. They’ve actually been one of the leakiest teams in the Championship.Hull conceded 66 goals in the regular season. That’s seven more than Oxford United who were relegated. Only three teams in the bottom half of the table – Leicester, QPR and Wednesday – conceded more goals than Hull, who also conceded the second-highest number of shots on target in the division.And as for the 16 additional goals Hull should have conceded, their first-choice goalkeeper Ivor Pandur is responsible for stopping around five goals. His save percentage of 69.2 per cent is not even among the top 10 Championship goalkeepers this season.
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Hull have been one of the leakiest teams in the Championship
Instead, Hull have benefitted from several large slices of luck at the back. There is a long highlights reel of missed chances by Hull’s opponents this season.Take Hull’s 2-0 win over play-off rivals Wrexham in December. Kieffer Moore missed two golden chances to equalise which totalled around 0.9 xG. But Hull kept a clean…
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2026-05-22 08:00:00
