There are two more weeks of conference football before the selection committee meets for the season’s first time to determine the top 25 teams. This will give us a good idea of the importance that is placed on quality wins and record strength in relation to the respective schedules, and what schools are in a position to do to secure a place in the 12-team bracket. The selection committee will rank teams 1-12 independently of the five auto-qualifiers, who are conference champions. Seven at-large picks also count. Last year, four of the highest-ranked conference champs were given first-round byes. But this season, the selection committee will decide who gets to fill those top four spots.
College football bowl predictions: Texas Tech and Miami are losing their grip on the College Football Playoff picture, Georgia Tech flourishes
Brad Crawford
The selection committee’s projected top 25 teams for Week 9 is different than our updated end of season bowl game and postseason bracket projections. This is a comprehensive look at their current view of these teams, prior to the official reveal of their top 25 rankings on Nov. 4, Here’s the projection.
The Buckeyes are a class above their peers this season until proven otherwise. This is especially true on defense. Ohio State was unanimously ranked No. Coaches Poll this week was No. 1, and the AP ranking followed suit with 60 of a maximum 66 votes for first place. Illinois is the only other team to have scored more than 10 against Ohio State in this season’s game. The Illini lost the match 34-16.
Hoosiers have two wins in the top 10 and are undefeated. The Hoosiers’ resume and schedule are among the strongest in the nation, making them the second-best unbeaten team behind the defending national champs. Two unbeaten teams could meet in Indianapolis, the first weekend in December. Both teams would get a first-round free bye no matter the outcome.
Florida State is in disarray since they beat Alabama two months ago. The Crimson Tide has won four straight games against top-25 teams. That’s a head-turning collection of victories that would give Alabama the upper hand in the discussion with Texas A&M amongst selection committee members on which SEC team to rank higher … so we project.
4. Texas A&M (7-0)How would the selection committee power rank the Aggies in competition with the one-loss Crimson Tide? This is a tough question. While Texas A&M is the SEC’s only team without a blemish, it has two fewer ranked wins than Alabama and just gave up 42 points and more than 500 yards of total offense to Arkansas, which is winless in conference play.
The Hurricanes’ fall in the AP rankings would not affect their ranking in the selection committee because they have three wins in the top-25 this season. Only Alabama has more. Miami’s loss to Louisville hurts, and it no longer puts the team in control of their own destiny when it comes to the ACC championship conversation. But this ranking is based on the body of work and the Hurricanes have shown great value at the line-of-scrimmage in previous years.
Georgia is 2-1 this season against top-15 competition. Although the Bulldogs struggled on defense, they were able to make enough plays late in games in order to avoid losing those matches. Georgia Tech is unbeaten but Georgia Tech’s one loss has had a more difficult schedule.
7. Ole Miss (6-1-1)Even though they lost, Ole Miss still looked like a contender against Georgia. The Rebels’ wins over American powerhouse Tulane, and then the fourth-ranked LSU are notable this season. They have another chance to change momentum in Week 9, when they play Oklahoma. Lane Kiffin and his team have done enough at this point to earn a spot in the first round of the Oxford College Football Tournament.
Style points. The Ducks seemed to be aiming for this last Saturday at Rutgers, when they blitzed the Scarlet Knights. Oregon has lost to Indiana earlier in the month, and is now 1-1 against teams ranked among the top-10 this season. The Ducks could get a home match based on an eye test but not a bye in the first round like last year.
9. Georgia Tech (7 0 )We don’t mean to take anything away from Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets and their unbeaten status as a Power Four school. However, a good schedule helped. Georgia Tech won by one possession over Colorado, Clemson and Wake Forest, and scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to beat Duke. The Tigers’ only ranked victory so far was against Clemson during Week 3. They are on the verge of their first possible losing season since 2009 under Dabo Swinney.
10. BYU (7-1-1)As the lone unbeaten team in the Big 12 with the same ranking win Texas Tech has (Utah), if the Red Raiders lose to Arizona State, the selection committee will have to award the Cougars the auto-bid as the projected champion of the league. In Week 9, we still expect Texas Tech to dominate the table and win conference.
In Week 9, the Commodores will be looking to win their third game against a top-15 team when Missouri visits Nashville. Vanderbilt will move up in the SEC standings with a win at Missouri. It would also improve their already impressive resume. The Commodores are two Diego Pavia turnovers in Tuscaloosa away from being unbeaten and leading the SEC alongside Texas A&M.
12. Oklahoma (6-1-1)Despite the two ranked victories, the 17-point loss against Texas in their most recent game could have put the Sooners outside of the running for one or seven spots at large in the bracket. We’re assuming that the 12-seed would be the Group of Six winner (South Florida, for now), and this would knock Oklahoma out of the playoff field. This weekend, the Sooners will host Ole Miss in a crucial match for both teams.
13. Texas Tech (6-1)14. South Florida (6-1)15. Missouri (6-1)16. Notre Dame (5-2)17. Tennessee (5-2). Louisville (5-1)19. Virginia (6-1)20. Cincinnati (6-1)21. LSU (5-2)22. Texas (5-2)23. Illinois(5-2)24. Arizona State (5-2)25. Michigan (5-2).Projected CFP first-round games. Georgia Tech No. 8 OregonNo. BYU No. 10 Ole Miss No. 11 Vanderbilt at No. 6 GeorgiaNo. South Florida No. 12 5 MiamiIt would be a scandal if Miami – a one-loss team in the same league as Georgia Tech – were seeded 4 spots higher than Yellow Jackets, if the season ended prior to Week 9, but this is the situation. Miami has a better resume, boasting three ranked wins compared to Georgia Tech’s unbeaten one. Notre Dame still has a good chance to make the playoffs if they finish 10-2, even if USC is their only ranked victory. Navy is still undefeated in the American so Notre Dame can pick up a quality win soon.
2025-10-25 12:00:41
