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NBA Player Betting cheat sheet
Usage rate: higher usage = higher floor on attempts.Recent FGA trend: stable or rising attempts signal reliability.TS%: above-average efficiency + large volume = strong over candidate.Shot profile: threes + rim attempts > long mid-range.Opponent defense: fouls conceded, paint allowed, open three rate.
Touches per game and time of possession.Potential assists: confirms creation quality beyond the box score.Teammates’ shot quality: good shooters turn passes into assists.Opponent scheme: teams that collapse on drives inflate passing lanes.
Role in rebounding scheme (primary vs. secondary rebounder).Presence of elite rebounders on or off the floor.Expected pace: more possessions = more rebound chances.Shot profile of opponent: teams that shoot many threes create long rebounds.
Player shot profile: high C&S volume, quick-release shooters benefit most.Opponent defense: teams that allow many kick-outs and perimeter looks.Lineup spacing: more shooters = more clean attempts.New heave rule: more last-second attempts without affecting FG%.
Foul-drawn rate: drivers > mid-range specialists.Opponent foul tendency: Undisciplined defenses inflate attempts.Usage: players with heavy on-ball creation generate more contact.
On/off usage spikes: when stars sit, secondary scorers explode.Spacing changes: shooters return → more assists; big men return → fewer boards.Minutes volatility: injury replacements often see stable 30+ minutes before books adjust.
Pace: fast = overs across the board, slow = unders.Matchups: paint-tight defenses push threes; perimeter-weak defenses inflate drives.Role shifts: new starters or bench promotions can swing props dramatically.
Points and shots markets are impacted by the understanding of offensive play volume and its role.
True shooting explains sustainable efficiency simply.
2025-11-26 10:00:00
