Jones Knows is our football betting specialist and shares his expert insight on the Premier League. Jones explains that Arsenal’s win streak at Sunderland could be in danger. Tottenham vs Manchester United at 12.30pm on SaturdayThe Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was built to be a modern fortress, a footballing arena that intimidates. It feels like a luxury resort for visiting teams.
The opponents don’t arrive dreading the event. It’s a game they enjoy. It’s the football equivalent of checking in to a five-star resort. Spurs’ recent home record shows that. Spurs’ home record is a testament to this. In the last 12 months, they have had the least points (13), the fewest victories (3), and the most losses (12) than any other team. And, in their last 39 Premier League matches at home, Spurs only have three clean sheets. You can’t look away from them. Not in the way Sir Alex Ferguson and his juggernaut were relentlessly ruthless in their pursuit of the title.
United isn’t yet ready to compete for the top honours. Sky Bet has them as favourites in the win market at 29/20. They’re a team made for moments, not consistency. So they aren’t a good bet. It is their total goals line that offers the best value. The 10/11 odds for them to score more than 1.5 goals has been successful in seven out of nine of their games.
This season, Jack Grealish’s card-based play and 2-2 score is a very profitable theme. Grealish continues to be the Premier League’s most fouled players, with 29 fouls. Grealish also gets cards for the fouls he’s been given. Trai Hume and Mads Weiffer were all booked after challenging Grealish.
Petulance bubbles up when he does not get the decision, making Grealish an underrated player on the to be carded market. Grealish’s petulance can bubble up when he is not given the right decisions. This makes him an underrated player on the market to be carded. Sky Bet offers 12/1 for Grealish and his opponent Kenny Tete to both be sent off. Nuno’s blueprint was shaped in the win over Newcastle. Sit deep, soak it up, and strike. The same model brought him success in Wolves and Nottingham Forest, where defensive structure and lightning transitions were at the forefront. Wide players are also given the freedom to explode into the space.
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Watch highlights from the Premier League match between West Ham vs Newcastle.
Summerville is the perfect fit for this system. His performances at West Ham have been a pleasant surprise, but he could soon be taking centre stage with this system after his performance against Newcastle. He has three shots and one of them was on target. His first goal is not far off. Sky Bet stands out with a 3/1 chance.
You will always experience a little bit of bad luck and variance, no matter how good your team may be. Arsenal have been a superb team. Eight clean sheets in a line and 10 wins is incredible. But they’re not unbeatable. They are not perfect.
It is impossible to achieve perfection in football. The results are far too unpredictable. And the smartest gamblers know this. They look for the best opportunities to make money when the streak breaks. Sunderland’s Robin Roefs is a very good goalkeeper and has the best record of any Premier League team when it comes set-piece goals. Sunderland are well-positioned to handle Arsenal’s set-piece machine.| JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score (6/5 with Sky Bet)Chelsea vs Wolves, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
A nervous official is likely to be card-happy. Andrew Kitchen, who is only in his fourth Premier League season, will be in charge of this game. The Premier League magnifying glass often puts pressure on these inexperienced officials to referee by law and not spirit of the match. In the Premier League, a tactical foul in the Championship that might have been handled with a simple word becomes a booking. And Chelsea are just crazy about cards since the beginning of last season. In that time, they have averaged 4.9 yellow cards per game – the most of any team. This fixture is also full of excitement, with the last six games averaging 6.9 total card per game. The most recent Carabao Cup match saw nine yellows, and one red.| JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 4.5 cards (11/10 with Sky Bet) Aston Villa vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Bournemouth, under Andoni Iraola, will be rested and organised. They will also be fully revved up to take on an Aston Villa team that is running on European fuel. Aston Villa haven’t fared well in the Premier League. Playing Iraola after a midweek fixture is a harsh test. Unai Emery may have a tactically savvy squad, but it isn’t quite deep enough to take on the load without some sacrifice. Bournemouth, under Iraola, has had an entire week to prepare for their game, rest their legs, and fine-tune its high-tempo plan. The Cherries are one of the fittest teams in the league, and they break with speed. Sky Bet’s odds on the Cherries to win the draw without betting are attractive at 11/8.
Eddie Howe said that Newcastle’s 3-1 defeat by West Ham was “unrecognisable”. The lack of intensity and attacking threat felt very un-Newcastle-like.Just a one-off then? This is not the case.If you look a bit deeper, this underwhelming performance and result away from St James’ Park, are an issue for Howe.At St James’ Park, Newcastle feels empowered. They press, they attack and they seem expansive and confident. On the road, it’s a different story. Howe is struggling to find the formula to allow them to thrive away from St James’ Park. The defeat at the London Stadium now means Newcastle have gone eight league matches without a victory on the road. Jacob Murphy’s goal on Sunday was only their fourth in those eight games. Their expected goals data over that run of winless matches is trending at an incredibly low 1.2 per 90. Horrible numbers. It’s surprising that they were rated as favourites against Brentford. The home team was available at Evens odds on the draw with no bet.
Danny Welbeck has been involved in six goals in his last six appearances. If you zoom in on his recent minutes against Palace, it’s even more impressive: three goal involvements in 150 minutes. In his last six games, he has been involved in six goals. If you look at his most recent 150 minutes, it is even more impressive. Sky Bet offers 7/4 on a goal, or an assist. This is a good price.SCORE Prediction: 2-2Nottingham vs Leeds on Sunday at 2pm live on Sky Sports
Sean Dyche has already started to work. Forest’s recent performance is already marked by his fingerprints. Dyche’s sensible move is to make Forest more difficult to score against. The club has not had a clean sheet in 18 Premier League matches, the longest streak since 1960. Dyche is going to be losing sleep about that. If you look at Dyche’s 18 games in charge, 15 of them were won by punters who backed ‘no.’ In the market for both teams to not score. It’s 10/11 to win again with Sky Bet.| JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score ‘no’ (10/11 with Sky Bet)Manchester City Sky Sports will broadcast the match between Liverpool and Manchester United at 4.30pm on Sunday.
Sky Bet’s 3/1 price for Erling Haaland is a tempting offer, but does it really represent value? Spoiler Alert: It doesn’t.The odds are too low for Haaland and the rest. CityThe attacking talent is priced the same as supporting actors. This might make sense if City Liverpool, on the other hand, aren’t that. Haaland’s aura dims when he faces Virgil van Dijk.
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Sky Bet has Phil Foden at 7/1 odds to score first.
Haaland is not a dominant force in the physical realm City Foden’s two goals midweek indicated a return to those numbers. This makes Sky Bet’s 7/1 quotes for the first goals look generous in a match that is difficult to call. His two goals in midweek pointed towards a return of those numbers which makes his 7/1 with Sky Bet quotes for the first goal look rather generous in a game that looks so difficult to call from an outright perspective.SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1Jones Knows’ best bet:1pt treble on both teams to score in Sunderland vs Arsenal, over 4.5 cards in Chelsea vs Wolves & both teams to score ‘no’ in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds (8/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet Multiples
Total P+L
Matchday One
0
-1
-1
Matchday Two
0
-1
-2
Matchday Three
0
-1
-3
Matchday Four
0
-1
-4
Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75
Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75
Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75
Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75
Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75
Matchday 10, a matchday for the 10th of September
-1
-1
-11.75
2025-11-06 20:00:00
