NFL expert shares betting strategy for underdogs in games with low totals

We are now in Week 12 of 2025 NFL Season, and by this time we know who the good teams and bad ones are. Sportsbooks have also figured out who the good and bad teams are, as we see some very large point spreads for this week. Jeff Hochman is an NFL betting specialist who has identified and shared a trend for Week 12 that involves betting on underdogs. This betting trend involves games with lower scores, or the over/under. Hochman breaks down this trend and tells us which games meet the criteria this week. NFL underdogs with low totals (over/under 42 or less)Win Rate: 205-150-10 ATS (57.7%)Sample Size: Since 2018Criteria: Underdogs of 6.5 or more points with a total of 42 or lessEdge: Weeks 10 through 15Why this worksMy job involves researching the best NFL systems that have a proven track record of generating profits. I look for systems that have a win percentage of at least 60%. This week there were no systems that met this criteria, but I found one that was close. When the total score is 42 or less, the betting market expects defensive play or a limited offensive performance. Sportsbooks don’t adjust their point spreads for this expectation of lower scoring. A point spread that is higher in a match with 42 or fewer points will represent a greater percentage of expected final scores than a spread of 6.5 points in a match with 50 points. This betting system is one of the best for underdogs, especially as the season progresses. The NFL betting system has consistently been one of most effective for underdogs. This is especially true as the season advances.Week 12 qualifying teamsTennessee Titans +13.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks| Confidence: 3 out of 5Following a tough road loss to the Los Angeles Rams in which Seattle committed four turnovers and recorded only 272 total yards, the Seahawks now risk underestimating a historically struggling Titans team. Seattle will be playing their first back to back road games in the season. They are also 5-0 against spreads in the last five games. It is always profitable to bet on the home underdog when a team has an ATS streak of at least five games and then plays their second consecutive game on the road as a double-digit favorite. All of them point to a road team that will easily win and cover. The ultra-low 40.5 total creates an edge for the system, even though this is a double digit underdog. The spread is rarely as wide in games with such low totals. Although the Titans have a lower talent level, this defensive slugfest makes the 13.5-point spread difficult to cover. Are the Seahawks motivated to go all out late when they’re up 7-13 points at the end of the fourth quarter? I’m not sure. If this line moves up to 14, as is possible, my confidence level will go to 4. Minnesota Vikings +6.5 vs Green Bay Packers | Confidence: 1 out of 5The Vikings are catching 6.5 points on the road in a divisional game with an ultra-low total. Green Bay has a 3-7 ATS record this season, despite a 6-3-1 overall score. This is a consistent overvaluation of the market. The low total suggests that the Vikings defense will be able to keep this close enough for them to cover. I can’t reach the goal with this number. Jordan Love is under less pressure than J.J. McCarthy. Love completed 67.7% passes (ranked ninth), while only being sacked 4.88% times (ranked eight). This indicates that the pass protection surrounding him is excellent. He generates 7.8 yards for every pass (sixth) to achieve his 230.5 yards of passing per game (11th). Love has a 0.96% interception rate (fifth-best). He’s been terrific despite numerous injuries at the skill positions.Conversely, McCarthy’s efficiency metrics paint a different picture. He was sacked in 9.6% of his games, which led to rushed decisions. If he were to qualify, his completion rate would be 52.9%. His interception rate is 4.1%, which is alarming considering he has only started five games. McCarthy’s completion rates drop to 48.9% when under pressure. The catchable ball rate is only 38.7%. The eye tests, despite the small sample size, indicate that McCarthy will need more repetitions throughout his rookie year. Only 21 completions over 20 yards have been allowed by the Packers’ secondary this season, which is the lowest in NFL. McCarthy will be making his first Lambeau field start as a Packers player.

2025-11-20 12:45:29