NFC’s real powerhouse: Making the case for four contenders colliding in Week 11

This season, the NFL will be full of surprises as usual. Four division leaders in the AFC did not win their divisions last year. But I don’t think that will continue. Until we see something different in January, I still think the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens should be the teams to beat. In the NFC, it’s a completely different story. The AFC has been dominated by Patrick Mahomes for the last 20 years, but the NFC is a different story. Philadelphia looks vulnerable this year, and it appears that the trend will continue. 

NFL Week 11 upset alert? These favorites, including the Eagles and Jalen Hulk, could be upset.

Tyler Sullivan

The 7-2 Seahawks will play the Rams, and the Super Bowl champion Eagles (7-2), who are currently 6-3, will take on the Lions (7-2). The 7-2 Seahawks host the 7-2 Rams and the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles (7-2) host the Lions (6-3).With the latest odds provided by FanDuel, here’s a case for each of those four teams to win the NFC and who I see as the actual favorite.

Eagles (+290).Case: Trade acquisitions Jaelan Philipps and Michael Carter III filling needThe Eagles might be the NFC’s favorites, but that doesn’t mean they look it. Lambeau Field on Monday was a dreadful game. While a victory is a success, it’s not the best of wins. There were positive signs in the defense. If this team can be considered the best of the NFC it is because they made trades to fill defensive holes. Jaelan Philipps can be a real difference maker in the NFL when he is healthy. His performance has shown that he could have been exactly what Philadelphia was looking for after losing Josh Sweat to free agency. Phillips is currently third in NFL pressure rate for this season, with 19%. He had eight pressures Monday, a career high. The Eagles are improving their pass rush across the board. Nolan Smith, who had been out for a while, returned to the field and Brandon Graham emerged from retirement. Philadelphia recorded a high pressure rate of 49% and a low blitz rate of 10% on Monday. This is the exact combination that helped the Eagles win the Super Bowl. Argument against: No offensive identity. Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown is struggling

The defense is on the right track, but after a bye week, the offense scored only 10 points. A.J. Brown is once again airing his dirty laundry. Brown did not catch a pass in the second quarter of Monday’s victory, making it his fifth consecutive half without a touchdown catch. Saquon Barkley and him have had just three 100 yard rushing or receiving performances this season, compared to 16 last year. This up-and down offense has been a major reason for the Eagles’ 222-yard loss in total yardage this season. They had outgained opponents by 898 last year through nine games. The offense is the main reason why the Eagles haven’t been as dominant as they were last season. If they fail to repeat as NFC champs, this will be due in large part to the offense. As we have seen in the Chiefs’ past, there is still time for them to make a turnaround.

Rams (+380). Case for: Best teams both on and off the ball. The Rams are firing on all cylinders at this moment. Matthew Stafford has been on a tear (20 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last six games). Puka Nacua is a dynamic pair. The big guys are dominating the trenches. Nate Landman makes plays on defense. Due to all the above, this is the best NFC and probably best NFL team. This is the only team to rank in the top five for both offensive and defense efficiency (measured by EPA per match) this season. According to the chart, they are the only team that is more effective on both sides. In the last ten seasons, the only teams to have ranked in the top five of the categories above are the 2019 Ravens or the 2022 49ers.

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The new offensive system they’ve developed could also take them to new heights. Over the last three matches, they have used 13 personnel (one runner and three tight ends). This stretch began when Puka Nacua missed a game. They are facing more defensive base and they have taken advantage of that. The Rams average 3.5 points on each drive, compared with 2.2 in the first six games. Davante is also abusing defensive players in the recent red zone. In the last three weeks, he’s been in the endzone six times and has caught six touchdown passes. He is a matchup nightmare and adds to the danger of the Rams’ offense. Case against: Eagles have lost three straight games since 2024 Week 12. In the last calendar, they are 0-3 in their matchups with Philadelphia. They’re 13-2 against all others. But they are getting closer! The Rams put up an impressive fight during a snowstorm last year in Philadelphia and could have easily beat them earlier this season, if it weren’t for two blocked fields goals in the 4th quarter. The Rams are the worst kickers in the NFL, and this could be their Achilles’ heel.

Lions (+440).Case: Dan Campbell’s play-calling gives the offense juice. The Lions are currently the third-best NFC odds and can make a statement if they win a difficult road game on Sunday against the defending NFC champions. I don’t place too much emphasis on the fact that the Commanders’ awful defense was completely destroyed in Week 10, after Dan Campbell assumed play-calling responsibilities. But what I’m seeing is intriguing. They recorded season-highs for pre-snap (66%) and use of play-action (27%) during Week 10. Additionally, they used three-wide receivers more frequently. Ben Johnson is known for his ability to get creative and spread out the defense. This could be a great asset in the future. Case against: Cannot trust Jared Goff, or the defense. Aidan Hutchinson will also be back this year with a vengeance. I trust the Defense a bit more, even though they’re vulnerable at cornerback. But I don’t trust Jared Goff all that much. He was their weak link, especially under pressure. In the 2023 NFC championship game, he was 3-of-13 (26 yards) under pressure against the 49ers. This included critical misses during the second half. Three of his four mistakes in the loss to the commanders during the playoffs were made under pressure.

Seahawks (+470).Case: historic passing attackThe Seahawks were one of best stories this season. Sam Darnold’s and Jaxon’s Smith-Njigba’s historic numbers are being posted in their first year together and Klint Kubiak is in his first year at the Seahawks offensive coordinator. Darnold has the highest yards-per-attempt (9.92) of any quarterback for 71 years, since 1954 when Norm van Brocklin reached the same mark. 

Seattle’s offensive philosophy is unique. Seattle throws the ball the least in the NFL (47% of plays), yet they lead the NFL in yards-per-attempt. Since Dan Marino’s record breaking season with the Dolphins in 1984, we’ve never seen a team throw the ball so rarely (less that half of the time), but so efficiently (at minimum 9.5 yards per try). This is a rare occurrence and you’d think that they would pass all the time if it were this efficient. The chart below illustrates that it is counterintuitive. But, hey! It works.
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Darnold is under less pressure. That’s speculation. But they are taking advantage of the good matchups. Seahawks have used at least 2 tight ends in nearly half of all plays so far this season. They also face the most defenders on the box. Darnold’s ability to make deep shots is explained by this. The defense is also important. Seahawks and Rams were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in both offense and defence this season. Seattle, like the Rams is very strong in the trenches. Their defense has also improved under Mike McDonald. They have been running opponents out of the building. Since 2007, the Patriots have had the best first-half point differential (+11.4) of any team. 

Sam Darnold: A case against trusting him. Seattle may be dominant, but can anyone trust him in January, like they did with the Lions? Seahawks haven’t been tested that much this season. In the fourth quarter they have only spent one minute, 34 seconds tied with or behind the opponent. That is the fewest minutes and 34 second by any team in the last 20 years (2005 Colts). Darnold threw a huge pass to JSN in order to set up the Cardinals’ game-winning field goals earlier this season, but came up short on Seattle’s other two close finishes. Nick Bosa strip-sacked Darnold in Week 1, as Seattle drove into the red zone in order to win. Plus, he threw a pick that led to the game-winning field goal in the track meet against Baker Mayfield and Tampa, which accounts for the Seahawks’ other loss. Darnold the same old Darnold? He has had 26 turnovers over the past two seasons. This is the second-most in the league, behind Geno Smith. This year, his offensive line has made a big difference. In his two last games for the Vikings, he was pressured by 49 times behind an o-line that was in bad shape. The offensive line had a part to play in the two embarrassing losses. He held the ball for too long, and missed some throws. Seahawks’ performance has been an upgrade. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest sacks of any team in the NFL. And the interior of the line has become less of a liability since the addition of Grey Zabel, drafted first overall. Things can change very quickly in the NFL, and we may be singing a different tune following Sunday’s games. But for now, as long Stafford stays healthy, I think the Rams will be a strong NFC team.

2025-11-13 18:24:55