Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out. We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made. We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to sit Noah Fant). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world. All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Jets deserve credit for playing hard in their first game without Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner and losing two more starters to injury in D-tackle Harrison Phillips and cornerback Azaraye’h Thomas. Their test at New England will be much tougher than what they dealt with at home against the Browns. Drake Maye was sacked once by a better Buccaneers defensive front last week and figures to have enough time to pick apart the Jets secondary much more effectively than Dillon Gabriel did on Sunday. That’s particularly good news for Stefon Diggs, who leads the Patriots with a huge 30.6% target per route run rate and is second among receivers with 9.1 yards per target when Maye isn’t pressured. He should skewer matchups against backup defensive backs Jarvis Brownlee, Isaiah Oliver and Qwan’tez Stiggers, all of whom figure to replace Thomas. Hunter Henry also is north of 20% in the target per route run department against no pressure defense and is due for a decent stat line. The Jets run defense held Quinshon Judkins to 3.4 yards per run over 22 carries on Sunday. Part of that was because the Jets played about half of their defensive snaps in single-high safety coverage to stop the run and dare Dillon Gabriel to throw. I would be surprised if they did that as much this week against a quarterback like Drake Maye. That should lend optimism for TreVeyon Henderson after his breakout Week 10, but what will really stir up excitement is if he’s not sharing with Rhamondre Stevenson again. That would give him plenty of touches and chances for good efficiency. Running backs tied to inferior quarterbacks (or at least quarterbacks who had tough games against the Jets) did not have good efficiency against the Jets. That shouldn’t be a problem this week for Henderson with Maye. STARTS: Drake Maye, Breece Hall, TreVeyon Henderson (No. 2 RB), Patriots DSTFLEX: Stefon Diggs (high-end flex)SITS: Justin Fields, Hunter Henry (bye-week TE), Mack Hollins (desperation WR), Kyle Williams (stash), D’Ernest Johnson, all Jets WRs and TEs, Jets DST
The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in four straight games (44 points twice) and will play the Dolphins in Spain with a depleted secondary and arguably their best remaining pass rusher suspended. Washington has zero sacks in its past two games and four total in the almost four games they’ve played since Dorance Armstrong’s season-ending injury. That’s on top of already having a slow-moving linebacker group that has underperformed for much of the year. It’s a perfect scenario for the Dolphins’ fast-paced offense to rack up numbers and even give Tua Tagovailoa a shot at being the fifth consecutive quarterback to get 29-plus Fantasy points against the Commanders … or at least the ninth to notch 22 Fantasy points in 10 games. In the Dolphins past four games excluding garbage time they have held opposing running backs to 3.7 yards per rush and three total rushing touchdowns (none in their past three games) with a stunningly good 70.8% defensive success rate. Judkins, on the strength of three touchdowns in a bad-weather game, is the only runner to get more than 13.1 PPR points on the Dolphins, a list that includes Derrick Henry (over 120 yards), Bijan Robinson (48 total yards) and James Cook (77 total yards). Last week especially the Dolphins linebackers did a mostly good job containing James Cook on his 18 touches. Chris Rodriguez figures to be the lead running back for the Commanders this week but he’ll split with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols to some degree. He’d be the most likely guy to score but none carry much upside. I fully expect Washington to take to the air, be it because they’re trailing or because the Dolphins secondary isn’t very good and it makes sense to attack it. Doesn’t mean Marcus Mariota will thrive: The Dolphins play a lot of zone and lately have been generating good pass rush pressure, even last week without Jaelan Phillips against the Bills (they sacked Josh Allen three times!). This is about as bad as a matchup would be for Mariota, who has been much more effective against man-to-man coverage and has especially delivered poor numbers when pressured versus zone (47.4% completion rate, 78.9% catchable pass rate, 5.3% TD rate is good but not in comparison to when he sees man-to-man). A positive: Mariota averages 7.4 yards per carry against zone coverage and has been known to take off running when pressured. At least that boosts his floor.
MUST-STARTS: De’Von AchaneSTARTS: Jaylen Waddle FLEX: Deebo Samuel (low-end PPR flex)SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (high-end No. 2 QB), Marcus Mariota (high-end No. 2 QB), Chris Rodriguez (desperation RB), Zach Ertz (high-end No. 2 TE), Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Ollie Gordon, Greg Dulcich, Malik Washington, Dolphins DST (borderline DST), Commanders DST
I would expect a typical Panthers offensive approach this week: Lots of running and as many quick throws as possible from Bryce Young. That’s because the Falcons have become the blitz-heaviest defense in the league, cutting down both Drake Maye and Daniel Jones in consecutive weeks when they’ve held the ball too long. When pressured, Young’s accuracy sinks like a stone but he does have a higher TD rate, a lower INT rate and a higher-but-still-rough QB rating in comparison to when he’s not pressured. Tetairoa McMillan has just two games this year over 13.5 PPR points with Young throwing to him; one came when Young threw 55 times, the other was a two-score game against the Cowboys. Given the matchup, McMillan is a risky bet in any format but especially in half- and non-PPR leagues. MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Drake LondonSTARTS: Rico Dowdle, Falcons DST (start next week too)FLEX: Tyler Allgeier (non-PPR), Tetairoa McMillan (PPR flex)SITS: Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, Kyle Pitts (borderline No. 1/2 TE), Jalen Coker, Darnell Mooney, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Panthers DST
Tough spot for Baker Mayfield — eight straight QBs have failed to get even 17 Fantasy points on the Bills defense. That list doesn’t include many stud passers but Patrick Mahomes and Drake Maye are on that list and neither had even 13 Fantasy points. Buffalo averages the second-most pass rush pressure in the league and typically does so without blitzing. Their secondary has mostly been good as a result of that pressure. There’s a reasonable chance the Bills get pass rusher A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Shaq Thompson and cornerbacks Christian Benford and Taron Johnson back after they missed last week. All of them make the entire matchup tougher on the Buccaneers. Mayfield’s been nails pretty much all season but this game feels like one we’ll be lucky if he makes it out with more than 24 Fantasy points, especially if the Bills pull a throwback and play heavy zone coverage. Downgrading expectations is probably a good idea. MUST STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Emeka EgbukaSTARTS: Baker Mayfield (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Cade Otton, Rachaad White (low-end No. 2 RB)FLEX: Tez Johnson, Khalil ShakirSITS: Sean Tucker (stash), Dawson Knox (desperation TE), Keon Coleman, Sterling Shepard, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Bills DST, Buccaneers DST
I don’t know if it was in response to the Chargers offensive line issues or the matchup against the Steelers pass rush, or both, but Quentin Johnston took on a much larger role catching short-area targets like hitches, screens and slants. As a result, Johnston had a season-low 3.4-yard average depth of target but a second-best 10 targets in a game … and another week with disappointing numbers for Keenan Allen. We’ve already seen Allen’s route rate decline over the last month, a trend we should expect to continue. But if Johnston’s adding more easy targets to his game while still being looked for deep, then the days will come where he’ll put up huge Fantasy numbers. This would be such a week: The Jaguars gave up over 15 PPR points to both Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins last week with Davis Mills starting at QB for the Texans. If you include Brock Bowers, the Jaguars have given up at least 20 PPR points to someone through the air in each of their last four games. That might speak to a better game for Ladd McConkey, but it drives the point home that basically anyone getting good target volume against the Jaguars is a cinch for good statistics.MUST STARTS: Ladd McConkeySTARTS: Justin Herbert, Kimani Vidal, Travis Etienne (No. 2 RB), Oronde Gadsden II, Chargers DSTFLEX: Quentin Johnston, Parker Washington (PPR flex)SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Jakobi Meyers, Keenan Allen, Bhayshul Tuten, Brenton Strange (stash!), Jaguars DST
Two weeks ago, J.J. McCarthy was more than passable as an NFL quarterback. One week ago, he started fine but began pressing and rushing and ultimately unraveled despite multiple dropbacks where he wasn’t immediately pressured. This week will be telling: The Bears are fifth-worst in generating pass rush pressure rate but accumulate sacks when opposing quarterbacks hold the ball too long, which McCarthy has been known to do. McCarthy has also struggled against man-to-man coverage this season and the Bears tend to play coverages based on their opponents weaknesses. It would make all the sense in the world for the Vikings to stick with a simple pass game approach without going up-tempo and not throwing deep too often, a plan that works even better if center Ryan Kelly plays and brings the O-line back to full strength. That could mean modest target volume for both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the latter of which has yet to score even 10 PPR points in either of two games with McCarthy this season (Jefferson has one over 15 PPR points). It wouldn’t be wrong to downgrade expectations for the Vikings receivers a little. MUST STARTS: Justin Jefferson (high-end No. 2 WR)STARTS: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze (high-end No. 2 WR), Bears DSTFLEX: Jordan Addison, D.J. Moore (low-end PPR flex), Kyle Monangai (non-PPR)SITS: J.J. McCarthy, Luther Burden III (desperation WR and great stash), Colston Loveland (desperation TE), T.J. Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, Vikings DST
We’ve come to expect a lot of downfield passing from Jameis Winston when he’s played over the past few seasons. Last year he was second among qualifying quarterbacks in average depth of throw (8.9 yards) and attempts of 10-plus air yards (39.5%) while also throwing the fewest passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. Winston lives and dies by his gunslinging mentality, which often means defenses bring out a lot of zone coverage against him. That plays right into the Packers’ strengths this week as they can play a lot of zone coverage and use just four defenders to pressure Winston into some potential mistakes. And the reality is that without any quality downfield threats, Winston could end up turning the ball over a bunch and capsize any chances the Giants have of keeping this game close. And after Monday night, the Packers would love a game where they can take some downfield shots themselves while still keeping balanced offensively. MUST-STARTS: Josh JacobsSTARTS: Packers DST FLEX: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson (PPR)SITS: Jordan Love, Jameis Winston, Theo Johnson (No. 2 PPR TE), Devin Singletary (desperation RB), Tyrone Tracy Jr., Luke Musgrave, Matthew Golden, Emanuel Wilson, Giants DST
If the Steelers are truly focused on improving their offense after last week’s debacle, then expect them to come off the bus running against the Bengals. In Cincy’s past four games, they’ve opened the floodgates to the tune of 6.8 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns and a gaudy 13.4% explosive rush rate allowed. In Week 7 at Cincy, Jaylen Warren turned 20 touches into 19.8 PPR points without scoring a touchdown (he did have one called back). Aaron Rodgers had a bad game last week and probably would love more than to rectify that, but he can do that on limited pass attempts while not feeling any pressure from the Bengals whatsoever. Remember, he had 30.6 Fantasy points at Cincinnati but had to attempt a high-for-him 34 passes in a shootout loss. Scaling that back while controlling the clock via running the ball is probably something the Steelers would love and could probably pull off.
MUST-STARTS: Ja’Marr ChaseSTARTS: Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers (low-end No. 1 QB), Jaylen Warren, Chase Brown, Tee HigginsFLEX: DK MetcalfSITS: Pat Freiermuth (high-end No. 2 TE), Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson (desperation WRs), Noah Fant, Samaje Perine, Kenneth Gainwell, Jonnu Smith, Steelers DST (tough matchups until maybe Week 15), Bengals DST
Woody Marks played his first game with over 61% of the snaps last week and crushed it. Okay, fine, he had as many mediocre pass pro reps as he had good ones, and there were a couple of runs where Marks could have picked a different lane to run through, but he otherwise displayed the kind of speed, cuts and versatility to become the Texans’ best three-down back since Joe Mixon. There’s no way the Texans could justify going back to a four-way split with Marks, Nick Chubb, Dare Ogunbowale and British Brooks. Expect Marks to get another heavy workload for however long the game between them and the Titans is competitive. In their past four games excluding garbage time the Titans gave up 4.8 yards per rush and four rushing touchdowns. That’s the kind of matchup Marks could take advantage of.
MUST STARTS: Nico CollinsSTARTS: Woody Marks, Dalton Schultz, Texans DST (but not next week)SITS: Davis Mills, Nick Chubb, Christian Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson, ALL TITANS
The Cardinals chances took a major blow when coach Jonathan Gannon announced this week than receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and linebacker Mack Wilson would miss the game and that edge Baron Browning was in concussion protocol. That’s on top of right tackle Jonah Williams leaving last week’s game early, cornerback Will Johnson missing last week’s game entirely and both missing practice early in the week. Fantasy managers should be most concerned about Harrison’s absence — without him, Jacoby Brissett will be without the guy who caught 15% of his completions, 20% of his yards and 25% of his touchdowns since Week 6. Harrison’s backup, Zay Jones, is out for the year with a torn Achilles. We’ll probably see more two-TE sets from Arizona with Elijah Higgins working as a receiver along with Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch. Unquestionably it’s a downgrade for Jacoby Brissett, but Harrison’s absence coupled with potentially a weaker offensive line and a defense that might not stop the 49ers much could force the game script into a high-volume game for Brissett. It’s simply a matter of other Cardinals players beyond McBride stepping up. Brissett isn’t a top-12 option this week but still fares as a bye-week replacement or streamer; McBride is the only Cardinals pass-catcher worth a lineup spot.MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, Trey McBride, George KittleSTARTS: Jauan JenningsFLEX: Emari Demercado (PPR flex)SITS: Jacoby Brissett (high-end No. 2 QB), Mac Jones, Michael Wilson (desperation WR), Greg Dortch, Elijah Higgins, Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, Zonovan Knight, Brian Robinson Jr., Michael Carter, 49ers DST, Cardinals DST
The Chiefs have played more zone than man this year, certainly over their past five games (at least 71% zone in each). That’s not anything to freak out about, but their lack of pass rush pressure is — they haven’t been as dominant getting to the quarterback as they were earlier this year (just seven sacks in their past four games) and it might be enough to free up Bo Nix from playing a lot of dink-and-dunk football. One huge key for Denver is not allowing as much pass rush pressure as it did in Week 10 — hopefully Quinn Meinerz doesn’t miss any time and Mike McGlinchey gets on his A-game. That’s the key to Nix’s game as he’s been horrid when pressured, much better when not. I’d give the Broncos the benefit of the doubt this week, making him a borderline start.Troy Franklin is the Broncos new No. 1 receiver. He has out-targeted Courtland Sutton by 11 passes over the past four games and has 15.8 PPR points per game compared to Sutton’s 10.7. Franklin has four touchdowns in his past four games (three inside the 10-yard line) while Sutton has four touchdowns all year. Franklin is used more across the formation and gets both layup and longball targets; Sutton is more stationary and tends to work a little further downfield. And there’s no comparison when it comes to speed or quickness — the only advantage Sutton has is that he’s bigger and rangy by comparison to Franklin. Sutton does have four scores in his past five against the Chiefs, but it feels like his role has changed and he may specifically need a touchdown in order to deliver a good stat line. Only three receivers have had 15-plus PPR points on the Chiefs this year, and it’s been speedy wideouts who have hit Kansas City the hardest. That profiles much more to Franklin than Sutton, though both are at least No. 3 options. MUST-STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee RiceSTARTS: Troy Franklin, Travis Kelce, R.J. Harvey (low-end No. 2 RB), Broncos DST, Chiefs DSTFLEX: Courtland Sutton, Kareem Hunt, Xavier WorthySITS: Bo Nix (high-end No. 2 QB), Marquise Brown, Pat Bryant, Evan Engram, Tyler Badie, Brashard Smith, JuJu Smith-Schuster
The Ravens don’t do anything specific on defense to deter targets to tight ends, especially when they play zone coverage (which they’ve turned to over their past two games). In those cases, they’re fine with short underneath throws their defenders can rally to and tackle. Harold Fannin and David Njoku could easily do a bunch of that but both are more than short check-down options. The issue is that the Browns are pretty much resigned to quick throws from Dillon Gabriel due to a combination of his limited skill-set and their offensive line. Just 5.6% of his last 85 pass attempts have gone 20-plus air yards downfield. This should suit Fantasy managers chasing both tight ends in PPR leagues just fine, especially since Gabriel figures to throw a lot. In four games when Gabriel has thrown 30-plus passes, Fanning has seen seven-plus targets and 10-plus PPR points three times, while Njoku has seen five-plus targets and a touchdown three times. Fannin’s the better bet, but both are in play, especially against a Ravens defense that has an emboldened secondary but no fiery pass rush. MUST-STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry (No. 2 RB)STARTS: Quinshon Judkins, Zay Flowers, Harold Fannin Jr., David Njoku, Ravens DSTSITS: Dillon Gabriel, Mark Andrews (borderline No. 1/2 TE), Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, Isaiah Likely, DeAndre Hopkins, Keaton Mitchell, Justice Hill, Dylan Sampson, Jerome Ford, Browns DST
This won’t be a game where Seattle can rest on its run game and defense — Sam Darnold is going to have to end up throwing a lot. In the past that’s meant mixed results but this season, and this week, it should be a positive. Los Angeles’ pass rush has sort of tumbled over the past couple of weeks, not really getting the chance to get to Tyler Shough in Week 9 because he got the ball out so quickly but also not putting a lot of pressure on Mac Jones last week. They have one sack combined over those two games with a kinda-low 29.7% pass rush pressure rate. As long as Darnold doesn’t hold the ball too long then he should be able to operate from a clean pocket for most of his dropbacks. That has to be key for him — in two meetings against the Rams last year he averaged over 3.1 seconds to throw in each and was sacked 12 times and threw three total touchdowns. Darnold has beaten that average in every single game this year, and if he sticks with that against the Rams, he should fall into at least good production. He’s also been a little more efficient against zone coverage than man-to-man this season, which helps since the Rams tend to play a lot of that. MUST-STARTS: Kyren Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Davante AdamsSTARTS: Matthew Stafford, Seahawks DST (low-end No. 1 DST)FLEX: Zach Charbonnet, Kenneth Walker IIISITS: Sam Darnold (high-end No. 2 QB), Rashid Shaheed, Terrance Ferguson, Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp, Blake Corum, Rams DST (high-end No. 2 DST)
Jameson Williams dominated on stop/hitch routes along the sideline as well as in-breakers last week, but most impressive of all was Williams’ timing with Goff on pretty much every single throw. I did find it weird that all but one of Williams’ catches came with Amon-Ra St. Brown off the field. Lots of quirks, but here’s what’s real: The Eagles figure to stick with zone-heavy coverage and a juiced-up pass rush without blitzing much, a recipe that shut down Jordan Love for much of last week and a staple of what Vic Fangio does defensively as long as he’s not trailing. With the Lions offensive line a little shakier than normal, particularly along the interior, there will be pressure on Goff. This season he’s been much less effective when pressured (51.9% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns, 62.9 QB rating) than not pressured (83.3% completion percentage, 8.8 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns, 136.0 QB rating). And when he’s been pressured he’s looked for Sam LaPorta (21.2% target per route run rate) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (15.6% target per route run rate) the most with Jameson Williams (14.9%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (9.8%) behind them. St. Brown is especially Goff’s target when he gets the ball out under 2.5 seconds (42.9% target per route run rate). What’s it all mean?! It means they’re not taking on the Commanders and their man-to-man, weak pass rush defense, and the results could be very different for Williams, and candidly for Goff too since pressure is not his friend. It might work out for Sam LaPorta, though. A.J. Brown has been dominant against man-to-man coverage this year, the problem is that he and the Eagles rarely see it. But the Lions play the fourth-most man-to-man coverage and are stubborn enough to stick with it almost regardless of who they play. On the season, Brown has a 36.1% target per route run rate against man with 17.4 yards per catch and three touchdowns. That sounds like the Brown we know and love! When he and the Eagles face zone coverage, Brown gets targeted on just 17.2% of his routes with 9.7 yards per catch and zero scores. Trusting Brown isn’t something we want to do, but in a potential high-scoring game, this helps provide some hope that you should, in fact, not get rid of him from our Fantasy teams. MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Amon-Ra St. BrownSTARTS: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST FLEX: Jameson Williams SITS: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Tank Bigsby, Lions DST (use them next week)
Two red-zone drops by Jake Ferguson in the Cowboys last game was what especially limited his Fantasy numbers. But the 10 PPR points in Week 9 was a step forward from what happened in Week 8 (no catches). The hunch is that Dak Prescott goes right back to him as a red-zone target (35% target per route run rate there). Ferguson’s efficiency is better against zone coverage (7.7 yards per catch) than man-to-man (4.9), and the Raiders have been a zone-heavy defense over the course of the season. As long as the Cowboys get better pass protection from the tackles and guard Tyler Smith (he had a bad game against Arizona), Prescott should be able to locate all of his top targets, Ferguson included. Only three tight ends have had six-plus targets against the Raiders in 2025, two of them (Hunter Henry, Chig Okonkwo) scored 10.6 PPR points; Tyler Warren had 14.4 PPR points on four targets. It’s not a tough matchup, just a rarely tested one. Expect a much different Cowboys defense from before their bye. Not only will new additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson find playing time, but do-it-all linebacker Demarion Overshown could also be back on the field. Williams should especially change the fortunes for Dallas both against the run and rushing the quarterback — he’s not always a clean tackler but his size and power makes him really tough for offensive lines to deal with, especially offensive lines down at least one interior lineman like the Raiders have. Last Thursday we saw Geno Smith not only struggle with instantaneous pass rush pressure but get hurt from it. The results for him and his receiving corps weren’t pretty. The same thing could happen in Week 11. MUST-STARTS: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, Brock BowersSTARTS: Ashton Jeanty, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Cowboys DST (low-end DST)SITS: Geno Smith, Tre Tucker, Tyler Lockett, Raheem Mostert, Raiders DST
2025-11-13 03:18:46
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