Expert shares top NFL money line parlays for favorites and underdogs in Week 12

The 2025 NFL Week 12 is upon us, and it’s full of exciting games. There are divisional battles between Vikings and Packers as well as Eagles and Cowboys. If you want to learn more about NFL betting, and how to parlay bet for Week 12, then you should listen to SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman. He’s created two money line wagers for Week 12. One parlay features only favorites, and the second only underdogs.

If you’re betting on three teams in a NFL money line parlay, it can be wise to choose heavy favorites. This strategy is based on betting teams that have odds of at least -150, meaning you are more inclined to bet on outcomes with a high probability. You can increase your chances of winning by pairing teams with odds that are between -150 to -350. Parlaying a favorite at odds of minus 140 or less can help you avoid laying 2.5 point, which can negatively impact your winnings. You must win all three legs to make a wager successful. According to BetMGM, NFL moneyline favorites with odds of -115 and less posted a win rate of 68% in 2023. In 2022, the win rate was 66.5%. NFL money line favorite teams maintained a 66.6% winning rate over the six-season span from 2018-24 (1,013-508-7). Favorites are directly correlated with their odds. If you are betting on sports and see teams with odds of -150 or -200 they have a good chance to win. They usually have around a 60%-65% winning rate. Even bigger favorites with odds between -250 and -400 tend to have higher win rates, ranging from 70 to 80 percent. In 2024, the NFL season was a standout for favorites with a win rate of 71.8%. NFL betting favorites have achieved an overall success rate (69.9%) of 114 games out of 163 in the first eleven weeks of the season 2025. This is a little below the 71.8% mark from last year. What does it mean for Week 12? Will the favorites keep rolling? Green Bay Packers over Minnesota VikingsThis game pits two teams who are heading in opposite directions. Minnesota has lost four of its five last games while the Packers won four out of their six previous games. Minnesota may have a winning away record (3-2), however, their offensive line has often been exposed by crowd noise on the road. This combined with communication problems can lead to pre-snap mistakes. The Vikings are ranked 26th for penalties and penalty yardage per game. It’s not ideal for a dome-based team to play in an outdoor hostile environment like Green Bay. Josh Jacobs is questionable for the game due to the knee contusion he suffered in Week 11. Coach Matt LaFleur has said that the injury doesn’t require surgery, and Jacobs can play. Emanuel Wilson, the backup running back, has consistently produced 4.2 yards on 53 carries. Even if Jacobs is unable to play, he will still be a viable option. I feel comfortable if he plays, making him an excellent sleeper option in daily fantasy. The Packers are currently at +0.8 sacks differential whereas the Vikings have been -0.8 for the first eleven weeks. The home team has a net yards per play advantage (+0.97 as opposed to -0.40). These two metrics have been a good predictor of straight-up wins. In January 2021 the Packers won 37-10 when Green Bay was 6.5-point favorites. J.J. McCarthy’s first start in Green Bay is a significant challenge against a formidable front seven.New Orleans Saints over Atlanta FalconsThe Atlanta Falcons’ roster has been ravaged by injuries heading into this matchup. Michael Penix Jr., the starting quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons, suffered an ACL injury that ended his season during Week 11’s overtime loss to Carolina. Penix, who had a 60.1% passing yardage, 11 touchdowns with only three interceptions, was running efficiently. Kirk Cousins is now the starter, as he has been struggling mightily in this season. He completed only 6-of-14 passes, for 48 yards, when he was brought on to play the Carolina game. The Saints had a Week 11 bye, which allowed them to recover, rest and prepare for this divisional game with fresh legs. Tyler Shough, who has improved and been praised for his growth since his first start in Week 1 against Los Angeles and his impressive performance against Carolina in Week 10, will have more time to prepare and review tapes. After a bye-week, NFL teams are 14-8 this season. Atlanta will play its seventh straight week. The line has changed from Atlanta -1.50 to New Orleans 1.50, which indicates that there is a lot of money backing the home team. I agree.San Francisco 49ers over Carolina PanthersAn interesting pattern has developed. San Francisco’s last nine games have seen alternating wins and losses. The 49ers will be looking to continue their winning streak after beating Arizona 41-22. It’s a good time to change that trend. The Panthers are looking to gain momentum after a dramatic 30-27 victory in overtime over Atlanta. It is unlikely that they will perform as well as last week. Bryce Young put on a career performance by throwing for 448 yard franchise record with three touchdowns against Atlanta. I like to fade teams after record-breaking performances. Alabama’s product has had a difficult time in games in which he attempted more than 30 passes (1-3 in 2025), however, when he keeps his attempts below 30, he is 4-1. Carolina’s offense works best when they rely on a rushing attack, and keep possessions short. Kyle Shanahan knows that if you want to beat the Panthers then you have to stop the run. You also need to force Young to pass downs. The Panthers travel cross-country to play their second consecutive road game, and third away match in four week. Week 12 NFL money line underdogs parlay

If you are willing to accept a little more risk in exchange for a higher potential reward, this is a popular option. Parlays that include underdogs with money lines offer the highest payouts on the NFL betting market. Three underdogs combined with odds of +200, +150 and+300 can result in payouts that are 20-to-1. Underdog parlays are profitable even if you only win a small portion of your bets. This is because they offer high payouts. Underdog parlays can be used to offset losses by hitting a few large ones. This will generate an overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.Arizona Cardinals over Jacksonville JaguarsI lack confidence in this selection, especially if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out. The home team has a good chance to pull off an upset. The Cardinals are 4-2 against the Jaguars. They have also won four straight games against Jacksonville, dating back to September 2009 While historical records carry limited predictive value, the psychological advantage of facing a franchise to which you consistently lose manifests in subtle execution details across four quarters.Jacksonville is coming off an easy victory against the Chargers, who were traveling cross-country with a 10 a.m. body clock start time. The Jaguars made the most of this opportunity. They will play their third away game in four weeks. The coaching staff acknowledged that it was difficult to maintain intensity after the Chargers’ 35-6 victory. Liam Coen, head coach of the team, said that they must “find a reason to be angry” when playing on the road against Arizona and Tennessee. Jacksonville is ranked 24th in terms of consistency. The Cardinals are ranked sixth. It’s an excellent example of why one should ignore win/loss records when analyzing NFL games.Cleveland Browns over Las Vegas RaidersI know the Cleveland Browns have been awful on the road (0-5), but the Raiders’ offensive line issues don’t match up great against the Browns’ pass rush. Myles Garrett is the NFL’s top sacker with 15 in just 11 weeks. In Week 11, Garrett racked up four sacks, showing that he can disrupt an offensive system that is dependent on execution. Brock Bowers will be a monster, but Geno Smith has time to give him the ball. I doubt it. The Browns have a large sack differential, with a +0.3 (3.2 vs. 2.9), while Las Vegas has a -1.2 (1.9vs. 3.1). The Raiders offensive line is a major weakness that Garrett is going to attack aggressively. Las Vegas will be without their star left tackle Kolton Miller (ankle injury) and also suffered a further blow when Jackson Powers Johnson, the right guard, was placed on injured reserve after his ankle injury. Las Vegas suffered a drubbing on both ends of the field by the Cowboys, who will now have to play in a short-week. The Browns’ home defense is said to be better. Smith has turned into a turnover-machine. After 11 games, he threw his thirteenth interception in Week 11. He now has more touchdowns than interceptions (13 INT vs.12 TD). It is a valid question whether the Raiders offense can sustain drives after his performance. Shedeur Sanders, on the other hand, will probably get his first start and won’t have to do too much to win. The Browns will be motivated in this game, as they are tired of local beat writers discussing their road struggles. The Browns, who are tired of the local beat reporters discussing their road struggles, will be motivated for this game. Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia EaglesI’m not going to overreact but after the bye, the Cowboys played like a totally different team. All their new additions will allow them to stop or slow the opposing running game. This should be useful against Saquon Barkley and Co. in the coming week. Dallas will also gain from additional reinforcements in the defensive end. Despite their 8-2 record, it is clear that the Eagles have offensive problems. The team has scored 26 points over the past two weekends (16 against Detroit, and 10 against Green Bay). Jalen Hurts’ performance has declined significantly. He is ranked 13th in the completion percentage (66.9%), 22nd in yards/attempt (7.4 yards), as well as 21st in EPA/dropback (15.9). Dak Prescott has quietly had a good season. He ranks fourth in completion rate (69.9%), and fifth in yards (2587). He also ranks first in QBR (75.1). The Eagles have beaten the Cowboys three times in a row, including a victory of 24-20 as an 8-point favorite on Thursday night. Football To begin the season, we are aiming to get the best possible start. Dallas has a strong special team with Brandon Aubrey, an All-Pro kicker and Bryan Anger, a punter of elite caliber. KaVontae Turkin is a return specialist who can change the game. This unit consistently wins field position and swings close contests. Dallas has an average +0.8 sacks differential per game whereas the Eagles average -0.5. This differential has been decreasing in recent weeks. This is the last stat I’ll give you. Philadelphia Eagles’ right tackle Lane Johnson is 12-23 for his career in games that he hasn’t started since the start the 2016 season. Go Cowboys.

2025-11-18 21:08:54