Elly De La Cruz was a lightning rod for Fantasy Baseball in previous years. But by the All-Star Break, De La Cruz’s game had improved in almost every aspect. He was on track for a monster season. His batting averages were.284/.359/.495 and he had 30 home runs, 42 steals, and 225 combined RBIs. He had reduced his strikeout rate from a high rate of 48.3% to a manageable rate of 24.3% and was ranked No. He was hurt. He was injured. We heard whispers that De La Cruz had been playing with a “nagging quad injury” but the club only confirmed its extent in the last few days. Nick Krall, the Reds’ president of baseball operations, was interviewed on the Cincinnati Reds Hot Stove League Show Wednesday. He was asked about De La Cruz’s defensive regression from 2025. Krall denied the team considered moving De La Cruz to shortstop, but noted that De La Cruz’s second-half struggles could be explained by a simple reason:
“Towards the middle of July, his quad was partially torn. Krall confirmed that he had been rehabbing and was in the ballpark yesterday. “He has been rehabbing all offseason. He played every single day. He tried to get through it. He tried to get through it.In an interview the following day with the Cincinnati Enquirer, Krall tried to retract that quote. He said that he had meant “strain,” and that the injury was “more annoying than serious.” A strain, or partial tear, is what RedLegNation.com calls a “nagging injury.” It’s difficult to understand how a “nagging injury” can still require treatment four months and a month after the initial injury. De La Cruz should be commended personally for his willingness and determination to continue playing through an injury. The Reds’ decision to allow him to do so is also understandable, as they are chasing a postseason spot. What I am not interested in is whether the decision was understandable or defendable.
What’s important to me is confirmation that De La Cruz’s slump in the second half wasn’t a mere slump. It wasn’t a coincidence, or a sign that his profile is volatile. He was clearly playing through an illness he shouldn’t have been. This was my assumption from September but having it confirmed makes it easier to determine how much De La Cruz will be worth in 2026. Am I saying that we should take his first halves at face value, and toss out the second halves? I suppose so. De La Cruz had clearly started to understand the game. It was evident in his much improved plate discipline and overall swing decisions. His contact skills were also improving, without him sacrificing the high exit velocity he had always been known for. Yes, he was running less than in 2024, and I suspect the days of 60-plus steal upside from De La Cruz are probably gone – not because he isn’t capable, but because it just doesn’t make sense for the Reds to risk injury with their best player.
He was still on pace to hit 30 home runs and steal 40 bases, which only Jose Ramirez managed to do in 2025. De La Cruz could have a 40 homer season if he can maintain his strikeout rate at the 25% mark, like he did in the first half. De La Cruz is more tolerant of his struggles now that the severity and nature of the injury has been confirmed. I’m expecting to see 30 homers in 2025 and 40 steals. A good batting avg is also likely. This should make 100+ runs, and around 100-ish RBI, a reasonable expectation for a Reds’ offense, which should continue to improve. De La Cruz’s ADP has dropped a little bit in the early NFBC Drafts, to 8.22, just behind Ramirez and Juan Soto. Tarik Skubal and Corbin Carroll are also within his range. I would take De La Cruz ahead of all four. If the performance he displayed in the first part of last year was genuine, then he is deserving. Given his age and impressive skill set, it’s not impossible for him to make another step towards the elite tier.
2025-11-21 00:53:13
