The College Football The Playoff Selection Committee has its hands full this week, ahead of Tuesday’s release of their first top 25 rankings. In the final four weeks of the regular season, there are still 30 Power Four teams that have a chance to qualify for the 12-team bracket. Teams like Indiana and Ohio State continue to make progress towards securing a ticket. Texas A&M and Alabama are staking claims in the SEC, while Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas are jockeying to keep pressure on the frontrunners. Teams like Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and others face a narrowing path, where a single loss could be devastating.Meanwhile, crowded fields in the ACC and Big 12 are waiting for chaos to open the door. Virginia, Georgia Tech and Louisville have the upper hand in the ACC race, while BYU Texas Tech and Cincinnati make the Big 12 race tense. Teams like Iowa, Michigan USC, and Washington can still make the CFP with a strong finish in the final week. This Week 11 edition of the College Football The Playoff Traffic report breaks down the Power Four teams by tiers.
The latest report highlights the 25 teams that are most likely to make it through the CFP. It highlights those who are in a strong position, while also highlighting programs with a small margin of error or have already been eliminated from the race.
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We’ll take a closer look at the path to the CFP before the selection panel’s first top-25 rankings of the year.
Look elite, have an easy path and a large margin of error. 2 Indiana (9-0): The Hoosiers have never won at Penn State, so there’s no doubt Curt Cignetti will remind his team of that history. It may be enough motivation for Indiana to win another 50-spot over a Big Ten team. They’re winning conference opponents by an average margin of 31.3 points a game. This is on pace to become the largest margin in FBS history. 1 Ohio State (8-0): When it comes to overall dominance this season, the Buckeyes aren’t far behind Indiana. In 2025, the Big Ten could be even more lopsided, with Purdue, UCLA and Rutgers holding a combined record of 4-13. 3 Texas A&M (8-0): The Aggies were in a similar spot last year — unbeaten in the SEC, just a few wins away from a CFP bid — before a November collapse. Although Texas A&M still has to play at Missouri and makes its first trip to Austin in 15 years to face rival Texas, the path looks far easier than it did to close out last season.
No. 4 Alabama (7-1): Two of the last three SEC opponents are now led by interim coaches, and the Crimson Tide get to play the next three weeks at home in Tuscaloosa before closing out the regular season at Auburn in the Iron Bowl.No. 7 Ole Miss (8-1): It would take a major collapse for the Rebels to miss out on making their CFP debut at this point, with only Florida and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl left as the final tests of the regular season. In control, but vulnerable — one or more unexpected hiccups may matter
No. No. Oregon (7-1) is a team that has only one win over a FBS team above.500. That’s Northwestern. In their final four games, they will face a number of Big Ten teams that are bowl eligible. This includes three CFP candidates — Iowa (Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM). No. 8 BYU (8-0): The Cougars have beaten rival Utah in the Holy War, but November brings two tricky road hurdles — at Texas Tech and at Cincinnati — that could determine their playoff fate. No. 8 BYU (8-1-1): The Cougars won their first Big 12 test when they defeated rival Utah in Holy War. But November will bring two tough road tests — Texas Tech and Cincinnati — which could determine their playoff fate. BYU started the season 9-0, but then lost two consecutive games during the last month.
No. 9 Texas Tech (8.1): This Saturday, the Red Raiders will be facing BYU in a “make-or-break” moment. Texas Tech’s 13-year winless streak against AP top-10 teams would be the necessary statement victory if they want to remain in control of their Big 12 title hopes and CFP chances — and avoid relying on tiebreakers. Notre Dame is ranked 10th (6-2). The Fighting Irish have three ACC teams left, including a matchup with Navy. Stanford and Syracuse are likely to not be bowl eligible. Pittsburgh is a tough road trip, especially with the Panthers having just returned from a bye-week to refine their game. They will be ready to challenge Notre Dame. 13 Texas (7-2): The Longhorns have already beaten two AP top-10 opponents this season and still face two more high-stakes tests — at Georgia and against Texas A&M in the finale. If they lose both, a four-loss campaign will knock them out of the CFP race. Split these games and you can still make it to the CFP with a three loss season.
No. 12 Virginia (8-1 ): The Cardiac Cavaliers are the ACC’s last unbeaten team. They have their first double-digit victory in six-weeks. Virginia has the advantage as the rest of conference is struggling. A single loss in the last three games can wipe out this advantage. Louisville (7-1) is a member of a crowded ACC pack, with only one conference defeat — an overtime loss to Virginia. The final road trip could be a de-facto elimination game, with key matchups to come. 11 Oklahoma (7-2): Few CFP contenders have a tougher finish than the Sooners. The matchup at Tennessee was an absolute must-win. Check. Check. But if Oklahoma is to make it back to the playoffs for the first since 2019, the last three tests — against Alabama, Missouri, and LSU — will be just as important.
No. 15 Vanderbilt (7-2): The Commodores went 2-2 in a four-game gauntlet against AP Top 25 teams. It could be enough to keep Vanderbilt in the playoff discussion, provided quarterback Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt finish well against their final SEC opponent — Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee, all of whom are currently below.500 in conference competition. Bumper-to-bumperAlive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on othersNo. Georgia Tech (8-1), 16: The Yellow Jackets are no longer unbeaten, and their margin of error is also gone. Georgia Tech is now part of a crowded ACC group and must make it through November to keep its playoff hopes alive. In the final week, there’s an opportunity to end Georgia’s seven-game losing streak. Mario Cristobal can’t seem get out of his way when it comes consistency. Miami was one of the top teams in college football when it looked good early on October. But two losses within three weeks has left them scrambling to get back into CFP contention.
No. Lincoln Riley might be starting to change the narrative of USC not being able to win away from home. The Trojans are on a winning streak, but they still have to face tough tests with Iowa at home as well as a trip to Oregon. Utah (7-2), a team that has a high chance of causing chaos in the Big 12 during the final weeks. Utah has two conference losses against top-ranked BYU, and Texas Tech will be playing each other this Saturday. Even so, it will take some major upsets for the Tigers to be able to return to contention. 19 Missouri (6-2): The stakes are high for the Tigers, and their true freshman quarterback Matt Zollers. Missouri hasn’t beaten an SEC opponent ranked in the top 25 since its first attempt. Facing a win-out stretch, Texas A&M and Oklahoma are looming obstacles the Tigers will have to take down to stay in the playoff conversation.
No. 21 Michigan (7-2-1): The Wolverines have a late bye, before a pair of road tests against Northwestern and Maryland. The Game against Ohio State is the next step, and a Michigan win could earn them a spot in the CFP if they can beat other teams with two losses. 25 Cincinnati (7-2): There’s still hope for the Bearcats to reach the Big 12 title game, even after their seven-game win streak was snapped. SMU (6-3), which has two of its three losses outside the ACC and is in the thick of the conference title race, could do a lot to keep those hopes alive. The Mustangs host Louisville after a bye in three weeks with a chance to gain an upper-hand in potential tiebreaker scenarios.Iowa (6-2): Don’t sleep on the Hawkeyes. Iowa’s next two weeks are crucial. They host Oregon on Saturday at 3:30 pm ET. The next two weeks could be monumental for Iowa, which hosts Oregon (Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS), before travelling to USC. If you win both, your resume will take a big leap. Washington (6-2), 24: The Huskies also belong to this crowded group. Wisconsin and Purdue are their next opponents. Neither team has won a Big Ten game yet this season. Next up is a trip to UCLA, followed by a match at home against Oregon. Washington’s return to serious CFP consideration would be boosted if the Huskies close with a five-game winning streak. Sitting on the shoulderTechnically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaosACC: Duke, PittsburghBig 12: Arizona State, Houston, TCUBig Ten: IllinoisSEC: LSU, No. 23 Tennessee Out of the raceEffectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoffACC: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake ForestBig 12: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West VirginiaBig Ten: Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, WisconsinSEC: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
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