We got an early Christmas gift last week, as I enjoyed one of my most successful betting weeks of the season. For the Week 16 slate, I correctly picked 12 of the 16 games on the moneyline and was 10-5-1 ATS overall. That included a 4-1 ATS mark within my five locks of the week, with my lone loss coming via the Denver Broncos falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars. That’ll certainly have us rocking around the Christmas tree and having a few extra celebratory eggnogs.As I now try to keep this momentum rolling through the holiday slate, injuries are going to make Week 17 a little tricky, as a number of injured quarterbacks are dampening the overall crop of games. In part because of those injuries, I found myself leaning on favorites for the majority of this slate, as I’m taking just five underdogs to cover and only three of them to pull off outright upsets.All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.2025 recordLocks of the Week ATS: 42-38-0ATS: 106-132-2ML: 150-89-1Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Broncos saw their 11-game winning streak snapped last week in a rather surprising loss at home to the Jaguars. The defense allowed 34 points, the most it has given up this season. The loss also kept the door ajar for their AFC rivals, the Chargers, to potentially leapfrog them in the standings for the No. 1 seed. But while a little air has come out of the balloon, it hasn’t popped, and I have a hard time seeing the Broncos struggle in this Christmas Day matchup.The Chiefs already lost Patrick Mahomes (ACL) for the season, and now top backup Gardner Minshew is on injured reserve with a knee injury. That’ll thrust Chris Oladokun in at quarterback. The former seventh-round pick in 2022 has spent the last four seasons on Kansas City’s practice squad, so he does have familiarity with the offense, but he could be walking into a buzzsaw.
I expect this Denver defense to make a statement after its worst outing of the season, and Oladokun could be on the receiving end of that, especially with a less-than-stellar offensive line in front of him.Projected score: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10The pick: Broncos -12.5Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)
The Bills defense has me worried about its ability to go far in the postseason. They haven’t paid for it yet, as they are 4-0 when they give up 31 points or more this season, but that’s not sustainable, especially against a team like…
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2025-12-25 14:46:11
