The Contemporary Era Hall of Fame ballot this year was revealed on Monday and it has some huge names. It’s important to note that the Era Committee Hall of Fame Ballot is completely different from the BBWAA Ballot. The Classic Era Hall of Fame ballot last year elected Dave Parker, Dick Allen, and the BBWAA ballot sent CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner into the Hall of Fame. This was a five-man group. The Era Committee’s ballots include non-players such as pioneers like Buck O’Neil, umpires like Hank O’Day, managers (John Schuerholtz), and front office executives including Bud Selig. The players who fell off the ballot and deserve further consideration sometimes make it, such as the two mentioned above, Fred McGriff, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Miñoso and Tony Oliva in recent years.Let’s break down each of the eight candidates and offer up a prediction at the end.
Baseball Hall of Fame announces ballot for Contemporary Era including Barry Bonds. Roger Clemens and Don Matteson
Dayn Perry
Barry BondsWe do not need to worry about a stats breakdown. Bonds stats show that he is one of the best players in MLB’s history, and some argue he is the best. Bonds was not included in the BBWAA voting because of the Mitchell Report’s connection to BALCO. He also received zero votes on the ballot for the Contemporary Era in 2023. I don’t know what would have changed three years later but, you never can tell, the panel could be more favorable.
Roger ClemensCopy what I wrote about Bonds and substitute “pitchers for players” above. Move him slightly down as he does not have the best statistical argument to be considered for the greatest pitcher of all time, but is not too far away. Both players are inextricably linked, as they both appeared on the BBWAA Hall of Fame voting ballot for the exact same decade. Carlos DelgadoDelgado, unfortunately, was included on the BBWAA list at the wrong time. In 2015, he was listed with Bonds (and other Hall of Famers) as well as Clemens. Curt Schilling. Jeff Kent. Gary Sheffield. Sammy Sosa. There were a lot of people voting and there are only 10 slots on the ballot. Delgado received 21 votes which is only 3.8% and was removed from the ballot. This is a look that deserves to be taken in more detail. Delgado, in various seasons over 17 years, was a savage with the bat. He was a.280/.383/.546 hitter (138 OPS+), with 2,038, 483 home runs, 1.512 RBI, 1,241 run and 44.4 WAR. Delgado was 27 home runs short of the 500 homers that would have guaranteed him a Cooperstown ticket. Nevertheless, 473 is ranked 34th among all-time players. He was overshadowed during the PED-era, but we have never heard of any connection between him and steroids. He also ranks 55th for career RBI.
Delgado has topped 30 homers 11 times. He also topped 100 RBI 9 times. Nine times he went over both 30 home runs and 100 RBI, which is the most ever. Delgado, who was a bat only guy, is not a good candidate for the Hall of Fame. He is 38th among first basemen in JAWS, which is well below the average Hall of Fame Score (he has a score of 39.4 compared to the average Hall of Fame First Baseman’s score of 53.5). He’s just a little below Mark Teixeira, and barely ahead Adrian Gonzalez. Jeff KentAs one of the most powerful second basemen to ever play the game, Kent remained on the BBWAA ballot for 10 years. He reached a high of 46.5%. He was an MVP and made five All-Stars teams. He also won four Silver Sluggers. He ended his career as a.290/.356/.500 hitter (123 OPS+), with 2,461 hit, 560 doubles and 377 home runs. 1,518 RBI, 1320 runs, and 55.4 WAR. Although he never won a championship, he managed to hit.276/.340/.500 and had nine homers with 23 RBIs in 49 playoff games.
Kent was not a very good defender. That’s why he didn’t do well in the WAR. Kent would not be a terrible choice for this position. He ranks 22nd all-time among second basemen, behind Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr as well Hall of Famer Nellie, Fox, Tony Lazzeri, and Johnny Evers. He’s a touch behind Jose Altuve, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler and sits below the average current Hall of Fame second baseman, so he shouldn’t be a shoo-in either. Lou Whitaker or Bobby Grich are two of the best choices for second basemen, but hopefully they’ll be on a new Era Committee ballot. Do home runs impresses you? Kent is the second baseman with the most home runs. He is third among all-time Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby, and Nap Lajoie in RBI. Don MattinglyA back injury suffered in the middle of his career has kept Mattingly from being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Mattingly hit.323/.368/.521 in his first 8 seasons (ending with his age 28 year) and had 144 OPS+. He had already collected 33.3 WAR with 1,300 hits, 64 home runs, 615 runs and 717 RBI. He also won the MVP award and placed second, fifth and seven in the voting. Throughout the rest of his baseball career, he averaged 128 regular season games with a 1.5 WAR.
We are left with a guy at corner infield who is hitting.307/.358/.471 126 OPS+. He finished his career with 2,153 hit, 442 doubles and 222 homers. 1,099 RBIs, 1,007 runs, and 42.4 Wins Above Replacement. Freddie Freeman is the closest statistically to Mattingly. Jim Rice, Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro and Freddie Freeman are the others. Cecil Cooper is the statistically closest player to Mattingly when comparing their entire careers. Hal McRae, Wally Joyner, and Freddie Freeman are also close. Mattingly never received more than 28,2% of the BBWAA’s Hall of Fame votes, but the committee for the 2023 Contemporary Era gave him eight out of 16 votes. Even if his statistics don’t support him, he still has a good chance.
Dale MurphySimilarly to Mattingly’s, Murphy’s prime years were glorious. However, he did not compile many and had a rough last decade. It didn’t seem to be an injury that ruined his career, unlike Mattingly. Murphy was a member of seven All-Stars teams and won two MVPs. He was the league leader in homers, RBI, runs, slugging, and walks twice. He was a.265/.346/.469 hitter (121 OPS+), with 2,111 hit, 350 doubles and 398 homers. 1,266 RBIs, 1,197 run, 161 stolen bases. Murphy’s JAWS ranking places him in the “Hall of the Very Good”. He is 27th in center fielders behind Johnny Damon, Fred Lynn, and Brett Butler, and only a few spots ahead of Andrew McCutchen. Andruw, Joe Carter and McCutchen are the three top statistical comparisons, but it’s worth noting that Duke Snider is fourth.
Murphy received no more than 23,2% of the votes on the BBWAA ballot. However, on the ballot for the Contemporary Era in 2023, he won six out of 16 votes. Gary SheffieldSheffield admitted that he used steroid-laced “the cream” by BALCO. He claimed he did not know that it was a synthetic steroid. It’s likely the primary reason he didn’t get in through the BBWAA ballot. Sheffield also had some defensive issues and off-the field issues, mostly from his Brewers’ years. His career ended with him hitting.292/.393/.514 (140 OPS+), 2,689 hit, 467 doubles and 509 homeruns, 1,676 RBIs, 1,636 runs, and 60.5 WAR. If we exclude Bonds, his counting stats would be the best of all hitters. Sheffield ranks 70th for career hits, 35th for total bases, 27th for home runs, and 30th with RBI. He is 39th when it comes to runs. Sheffield also ranks 30th on the list of times spent at base, 30th overall, and 21st among walkers. He walked more than 300 times in his career. This is a rare occurrence among power-hitters.
Sheffield’s last BBWAA ballot saw him get 63.9%, but his PED baggage makes me doubt his chances at the Era Committee. Sheffield will not be able to find a place in the Era Committee until there is movement on Bonds. Fernando ValenzuelaValenzuela’s death just before the World Series in 2024 brought his significance to Dodgers and MLB history into sharper focus. Last December, I wrote about how death, sometimes seemingly indirectly, can give a small push to Hall of Fame candidates. I said that I thought this would help Dick Allen get in. It happened. It was. I also had this to say: Knowing what we know now about arm injuries, I also can’t help but wonder if we should grant Valenzuela a little leeway in Hall of Fame discussions, given his early workload. Between the ages of 20 and 26, he played an average of 255 innings per season, with 14 complete games. He had a career ERA of 2.94 through his age-25 year. He had a 4.23 ERA from age 26 to the end of his career. In 1987, at age 26, he suffered shoulder injuries. Valenzuela became a six-time All-Star in 1986. He also won the Cy Young, the Rookie of Year, and a World Series. He was in the top five for Cy Young votes four times. He would never be selected to an All-Star Team or receive a Cy Young Award again. In all, though, his career numbers compare somewhat decently with Jack Morris, who made the Hall of Fame via the Modern Baseball Era Committee in 2018. Fernandomania’s impact on Dodgers fanatics is also something I feel should be discussed. Hall of Fame does not mean a hall of the best players in history who have never failed. I believe the road is clear at this point. PredictionThere will be a 16-person panel that has yet to announce, who will gather in a conference room and discuss each player before voting at the winter meetings. To be inducted into the Hall of Fame, any of the players above would need to receive at least 12 votes. It is impossible to predict without knowing who the panel will be. I’ll start by eliminating Bonds, Clemens, and Sheffield. I don’t think the PED-connected athletes will ever make it through a panel. I believe Mattingly, Murphy and Delgado will receive strong consideration from the panel. Mattingly and Valenzuela are both candidates I think will be successful. I wouldn’t surprise if they went crazy and found a way to include Kent and/or Delgado too. You can check out the class of 2022 if you think it’s not possible. The Early Baseball Committee and Golden Era Committee (yes, two committees that year but still…) inducted six men. The class can range from one to five players. Valenzuela will be admitted while Bonds, Clemens, and Sheffield won’t.
2025-11-03 21:25:32
