Free Agency Update: Naylor returns to Seattle

The most interesting moves in the off-season are usually those where a player switches teams. It’s best if the change comes unexpectedly and with a drastic change in circumstances. John Naylor’s return to Mariners is an exception. Seattle’s is an extremely pitcher-friendly home park, and some players – *cough Eugenio Suarez *cough* – seem completely overwhelmed by the park’s offense-suppressing ways. The Mariners’ signing of a premier free agent is typically a move that will require a major downgrade of Fantasy rankings or a reappraisal in sincerity of the player’s worth. Naylor, however, may not have been affected by this. Naylor’s performance as a hitter was impressive in Seattle. In 54 games, he hit.299/.341/.490. It’s not a large sample, but it is compelling. Naylor has a unique hitting talent. He’s not an elite hitter or a player with extraordinary traits. Naylor’s speciality is his ability to adapt. He’s got a great approach at the plate, and really good contact skills. But he has enough power to make it difficult for pitchers to just blast fastballs into the zone and then dare him do anything with them. He walks, but isn’t looking for them. He hits a homer in the right-field bleachers, yet it’s only part of his game. It is a skill-set that has enabled him to flourish in Cleveland, Arizona and now Seattle. In 163 career plate performances, he has batted.304/.335/.534.

Naylor must be the same man he has always been. Not so much. Naylor became an elite baserunner after moving to Seattle. Naylor has never been a 0 on the basepaths. He stole as many as ten bases in 2023, despite being a very slow baserunner. Before the Seattle trade, he was more active, stealing 11 bases in 93 matches. But once he joined the Mariners he became a prolific base thief. In 54 games he stole 19 bases, without ever getting caught. And if you thought maybe he was just taking advantage of a lack of defensive attention in the dog days of summer – many of his steals came without even a cursory throw to second – he also stole two bases in 12 postseason games. It’s not quite the 60 steals per game he had with the Mariners during the regular season but it shows he’s not shy either. And, in case you’re wondering if Naylor might be, let’s say, “sneaky fast” … nope! He was in the third percentile in sprint speed last season, by far the slowest player to steal 30 bases in the Statcast era – the second slowest was Juan Soto in 2025, who was in the 13th percentile, and before that it was Kyle Tucker in 2023, who was in the 33rd percentile. Naylor’s speed was extremely slow. Naylor was extremely slow. 

How did he do it? StatCast shows that he had great jumps. Of the 226 players who have at least 500 base-stealing opportunities, only twelve gained more distance from the time the pitcher started their delivery to the moment they released the ball. Agustin RAMIEZ was the only base thief of note among those who preceded him. Naylor is known for being opportunistic but his stats don’t show it. Statcast rates Naylor as a baserunner who is about average in 2025 when you take into account his entire baserunning career. That was a big improvement from 2024, but it still highlights the fact that Naylor didn’t actually become an incredible baserunner overnight – he just got a lot better at the one part of baserunning we care about for Fantasy.Is that a projectable skill moving forward? My guess is now, and that we’ll see a similar regression with Naylor as we saw from Willy Adames a year ago – he stole 21 bases in his contract year in 2024 before falling back to 12 in 2025. This was his second-highest career mark, but was in line more with what he did before. Naylor would have to expect 15 steals, which is a nice bonus, but would not be enough for him.

But with his return to Seattle … maybe that’s underselling him? I don’t believe you should draft Naylor 2026 expecting him to be another 30-steal player, but if he ended up somewhere else, I would have said that there was no chance of it happening again. Was he again on a pace of nearly 30 steals in Seattle? It’s possible that 30 is achievable, but not likely. How would you factor that into the price of his draft pick? Naylor is still outside the top seven first basemen, which represents the two top tiers of players at that position. Naylor might have enough to put him in front of Vinnie Pasquantino or Ben Rice, who are similar hitters but don’t possess any steals potential. Naylor should be slotted around the 65th spot overall. He’ll have a decent batting average, even for a first-baseman, and will be rare in terms of steals. His contact-heavy style is also likely to provide a lot of RBI. 

2025-11-17 23:36:56