With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture starts to take form. Power Four teams are losing ground in their quest to secure one of the 11 non Group of Six bids. A handful of programs are clearly in control of their own destiny, while others are clinging to life, relying on tiebreakers, chaos elsewhere or near-perfect finishes to stay alive in the at-large conversation.Indiana, Ohio State and Texas A&M — the last of the unbeatens — continue to solidify strong résumés as essential locks to reach the CFP. Others like Alabama, Georgia and Oregon are jockeying to gain position, with big wins and tough tests still on their schedule. In the Big 12, Texas Tech has separated itself as the clear top dog, carving out a strong résumé and taking control of the conference race. BYU and Cincinnati are still possible. The ACC has descended into a self-cannibalizing mess, with seven teams mathematically still alive. This is making the conference race among the most unpredictable of recent times.
Texas Tech to replace BYU as the College Bowl Predictions Football Playoff bracket, Oregon avoids chaos
Brad Crawford
What teams are heading towards the CFP? And which have fallen out of course? This Week 12 edition of the College Football Playoff traffic report sorts each Power Four into tiers. From programs on cruise to those that are out of the race,
On cruise control In front of the wheel Bumper to bumper Sitting on your shoulder Out the raceNote: Rankings are from last week’s first CFP Rankings. Cruise controlLook like a pro, have an easy path to follow and plenty of margin for error. 2 Indiana (10-0): The Hoosiers built themselves plenty of margin for error, but after Fernando Mendoza went 80 yards to put away Penn State, they didn’t even need it. Indiana is virtually locked in to both the Big Ten Championship game and CFP. Wisconsin and Purdue are a combined 1-12 Big Ten teams. No. 1 Ohio State (9 0): Although the Buckeyes are almost assured of their CFP place, a loss to Michigan on their upcoming road trip could force them to miss out on the Big Ten championship game.
No. 3 Texas A&M (9-0): This might just be the year Texas A&M is for real and living up to all those championship talks. If the Aggies haven’t already secured their SEC Championship game spot, there’s the revenge factor this Saturday against South Carolina. And the final showdown with rival Texas may also be a key to the Aggies’ SEC Title Game if it hasn’t been decided. 5 Georgia (8-1): Kirby Smart won’t want to leave anything to chance, and Georgia has leeway to at worst split its remaining games against Texas and rival Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs’ SEC schedule concludes this Saturday. They could also rely upon a little confusion in the last two weeks to ensure a return to Atlanta. Alabama (8-1), the Crimson Tide, aren’t running away from SEC teams. They have to face a strong Oklahoma defense as well as the unpredictable Iron Bowl in Auburn at the end of the season. Still, with its résumé, Alabama looks well-positioned to control its own path to both the SEC title game and CFP.
No. Ole Miss (6-1): There is a little margin of error for the Rebels in their last two games. Still, the overall strength of their résumé still leaves something to be desired. Ole Miss plays Florida on Black Friday and finishes the regular-season with the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. Texas Tech (8-1): No team in the Big 12 has beaten a Texas Tech that is fully healthy. The Red Raiders’ defense is among the best in America and could lead the team to its first conference title since 1957. The Red Raiders are in the driving seat. They control their own path but remain vulnerable. One or two unexpected hiccups can make a difference.
No. Dante Moore’s two-minute drive, which led to Atticus Sappington’s game-winning goal in the rain-soaked Iowa, showed that the Ducks were built for postseason stress. Oregon isn’t guaranteed to make the CFP with three more tough games in the highly competitive Big Ten. The stretch begins with a short-week matchup on Friday against Minnesota, coming off of a bye week. Next are tests at USC and Washington to end the regular season. 10 Notre Dame (7-2): After starting the season 0-2, Notre Dame has rattled off seven straight wins, tied for the fifth-longest active streak in the FBS. Pittsburgh, which has won five consecutive games, will be a crucial road test for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame would be eliminated from the CFP if they lose. 11 Texas (7-2) : The Longhorns finished just outside the CFP field of 12 in the first rankings. There’s still an opportunity to climb, starting with a showdown at Georgia this Saturday and rival Texas A&M to close the regular season. Texas will be in the playoffs, with a chance to play in the SEC title match if they win out. It’s still probably enough to split them.
No. 17 Georgia Tech (8-1): The Yellow Jackets need to focus on reaching the ACC title game before entertaining playoff dreams. They’re in a good position with just one loss. However, a trip to Pittsburgh, which is looming for Week 13, could determine their chances of making the postseason. 8 BYU (8-1): The unbeaten run is over after getting out-physicaled in a potential Big 12 title game preview at Texas Tech. BYU needs to win the remaining games to stay in contention for the championship. The team should also take note of the lessons learned in Lubbock, if it wants a different outcome when the teams meet again in December. Oklahoma (7-2), which won at Tennessee to save the season in Week 10, is still in the running for the playoffs, but must win to make a strong case. This means they must survive a road test against Alabama on Saturday, before hosting Missouri and LSU in the final two weeks of the regular season.
Cincinnati (7-2): With BYU’s loss, the Bearcats now control their path to the Big 12 title game and the CFP. Cincinnati’s final matchup against BYU will be crucial, as a victory there would give them the tiebreaker edge. The team will also play Arizona and TCU before the final. Bumper-to-bumperAlive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on othersNo. 16 Vanderbilt (8-2): Another Heisman Trophy-caliber performance by Diego Pavia in an overtime win against Auburn kept the Commodores’ slim CFP hopes alive. Winning the SEC is out of reach, but comfortable wins vs. Kentucky and at rival Tennessee could give Vanderbilt a shot at a solid résumé if teams ahead stumble.No. 13 Utah (7-2): Texas Tech’s win against BYU complicated Utah’s path to the Big 12 title game, leaving the Utes with fewer favorable outcomes to secure a conference crown. Despite two conference losses, the selection committee clearly values Utah’s résumé, slotting it inside the top 15 of last week’s initial CFP rankings. The Utes will need to finish well and hope to get help from other sources to keep a realistic playoff path.
No. USC (7-2), Lincoln Riley, and the Trojans are still in the playoff race after winning three consecutive Big Ten games for the first time ever since they joined the conference. USC must keep this momentum going through the final stretch, which includes hosting Iowa, visiting Oregon, and finishing against crosstown rival UCLA, to make a compelling case to the CFP Committee. SMU will have a bye before they host Louisville. 18 Miami (7-2): This is where the ACC picture gets even messier. Miami’s odds of making it to the conference title match are slim. It will take a lot more chaos and some luck in tiebreakers for them to make it. But if things break right elsewhere and the Hurricanes run the table, their résumé — with quality wins and strong metrics — could still be good enough to hang around the at-large conversation.
No. 14 Virginia (8-2): Time finally ran out on the Cardiac Cavaliers, who suffered their first ACC loss. Virginia must win the trip to Duke this Saturday if they want to remain in the race for the ACC title and the CFP. Michigan (7-2) is a possible representative for the Big Ten if it wants to send a fourth team back into the CFP. If the Wolverines don’t make a mistake on the road during the next couple of weeks, they should be able to host Ohio State for a win-and in scenario. It’s not impossible. Pittsburgh (7-2) : It is fair to say that Pittsburgh was out of the CFP picture a month before Mason Heintschel took over as quarterback. Since then the Panthers have ripped five consecutive wins, but now face a brutal 3-game gauntlet – Notre Dame at Georgia Tech, Miami – that will show whether this late surge in performance is sustainable.
Duke (5-4): How can a team without an FBS win outside its conference be in the mix? Blue Devils only have one ACC defeat, which keeps them in the crowded and complicated race for conference title game. This Saturday, the winding road continues with Virginia. Sitting on the shoulderTechnically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaosACC: No. Arizona State, Houston, Illinois, No. 15 LouisvilleBig 10: Illinois, No. 20 IowaSEC: No. 22 Missouri, No. 25 Tennessee Out of the raceEffectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoffACC: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake ForestBig 12: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West VirginiaBig Ten: Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, No. No. 23 Washington and WisconsinSEC: Arkansas. Auburn. Florida. Kentucky. LSU. Mississippi State. South Carolina.
2025-11-10 15:02:21
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