Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out. We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made. We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to sit Noah Fant). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world. All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Tre Tucker is locked in as an outside receiver like he’s been for pretty much every game for the Raiders, and with Jakobi Meyers’ 7.0 target average out the door it stands to reason Tucker will see a few more than the 5.4 targets per game he’s gotten already. What could stand to change is Tucker’s average depth of target, which has clunked from 11.6 yards in his first five games to 3.1 in his past three. Even Tyler Lockett, who should play more than the 19 snaps he had in Week 9 with Meyers gone, had a higher ADOT in his first game with the Raiders than Tucker did in any of his last three. The Broncos have held opposing wideouts to 2.8 yards after the catch on the season with their best week ever coming in Week 9 at Houston without Pat Surtain II on the field. The Broncos are also third best in catch rate allowed on throws of 20-plus air yards, so even if the Raiders did opt to try using Tucker deep they’d struggle based on how Denver’s done. In four games with six-plus targets this season, Tucker had one mammoth showing at Washington in Week 3 and three games with 11.1 or fewer PPR points. I wouldn’t expect much more than that from Tucker this week. JK Dobbins has had single-digit PPR points in three of his past four games but his role doesn’t seem to be changing much. He’s had at least 15 touches in all but one of his past six games and he’s averaged over 4.0 yards per rush in all but one of those six. He’s doing what’s asked of him by the Broncos coaches but he’s not fetching targets (13 on the year for nine receptions) and he’s not scoring touchdowns (one in his past six). Rookie R.J. Harvey, meanwhile, has scored in three straight and has 23 receptions on the year (five last week), but it’s not like his playing time or workload have changed. Sean Payton has not lost to a Pete Carroll-coached team since the 2013 playoffs and the minus-9.5 point spread suggests he’ll win again. The Raiders have seen opposing RBs get at least 30 carries in two straight games and have still shown good efficiency (under 3.9 yards per carry in each). Still, if it’s going to be a Denver win with a shot at the backs splitting 30 carries, then both are in play as at least flexes.MUST-STARTS: Brock BowersSTARTS: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton (No. 2 WR), Ashton Jeanty (No. 2 RB), JK Dobbins (low-end No. 2 RB), Broncos DST
FLEX: Troy Franklin, Tre Tucker (low-end PPR flex)SITS: Geno Smith, R.J. Harvey (desperation RB), Evan Engram, Tyler Lockett, Michael Mayer, Raheem Mostert, Raiders DST
Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s creatively used his cornerbacks through the years, but he’s never had a guy like Sauce Gardner. This week will be an interesting first test — will he play Gardner to one side of the field, or will he have him shadow Drake London? The answer lies in how the other Colts cornerbacks can perform — Mekhi Blackmon has played decently well in place of Charvarius Ward and at least was better tackling than Jaylon Jones was in Jones’ first game back. My guess is that the Colts keep things easy to start the game and keep Blackmon on one side of the field and Gardner on the other, changing things up if London and others crush Blackmon (Gardner did not shadow London in a 2023 meeting). Michael Penix Jr. has been a little more efficient throwing to his right than his left this season (higher EPA per dropback, higher QB rating, slightly higher completion rate and yards per attempt), so the Colts could open the game with Gardner defending that side. Pair Gardner’s arrival with a Colts pass rush that should be free to blitz more with the stud cornerback defending large swaths of the field and a QB in Penix who doesn’t get the ball out super-fast like Aaron Rodgers did against Indy last week and the Colts should be improved. After last week’s loss at Pittsburgh, Colts coach Shane Steichen expressed remorse in how he prepped his offensive line for the Steelers pass rush and lamented not being more balanced on offense. His chance at redemption comes this week against a Falcons pass rush ranked first in blitz rate. He can negate that with a combination of Jonathan Taylor runs and quick throws from Daniel Jones. Dink-and-dunk throws from Jones aren’t anything new, and he could easily follow the footsteps Tua Tagovailoa had against Atlanta two weeks ago when he got the ball out fast and turned in a great performance while negating the Falcons pass rush. If and when that happens, don’t expect either Josh Downs or Alec Pierce to be big-time contributors; even though Downs has a very high 37.2% target per route rate when Jones has gotten the ball out under 2.5 seconds, he hasn’t done a ton with it. Pierce’s rate isn’t even one-third of Downs’. And if Taylor gets back to attacking on the ground then there won’t be much upside for Jones’ numbers either.
MUST-STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Michael PittmanSTARTS: Daniel Jones (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts (borderline No. 1/2 TE), Colts DST (bye next week)FLEX: Josh Downs (low-end PPR flex)SITS: Michael Penix Jr., Alec Pierce (desperation WR), Darnell Mooney, Tyler Allgeier, Ameer Abdullah, Falcons DST (vs. CAR next week)
Rashid Shaheed averaged 7.3 targets and a 22.2% target per route run rate for the Saints. The void left by his absence will probably be split up by everyone else on the team but especially reception machine Chris Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson. In effectively six quarters of play with Tyler Shough in Weeks 8 and 9, Johnson saw 10 targets and turned them into a cumulative 6-66-1 stat line. Given the lack of other quality receivers in New Orleans, it’s a pretty safe bet we’ll see Johnson continue to get looks from Shough, elevating his value this week and rest of season. Four tight ends have topped 10 PPR points against the Panthers this year, a number that would have probably been five if not for Tucker Kraft’s injury last week (he and Luke Musgrave combined for 10.4). You could literally add Johnson off waivers and start him in Week 10.
MUST-STARTS: Rico DowdleSTARTS: Chris Olave (flex in non-PPR), Tetairoa McMillan (low-end No. 2 WR), Panthers DST (one week only)FLEX: Alvin KamaraSITS: Bryce Young, Tyler Shough, Jalen Coker, Brandin Cooks, Devin Neal, Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Devaughn Vele, Saints DST
It would be shocking if the Giants developed a run game after bottoming out last week with Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary. Chicago’s run defense has been pretty great over its past four games anyway, excluding garbage time (3.7 yards per carry, 4.2% explosive run rate allowed, two touchdowns to Derrick Henry). Bank on the Giants leaning into Jaxson Dart just as they have since Week 4, especially against a Bears defense that’s had a hard time creating pass rush pressure. It’s huge for Dart, who is much more effective when unpressured (70% completion rate, 7.0 yards per attempt, 6.9% TD rate) than pressured (40% completion rate, 6.0 yards per attempt, 2.2% TD rate). Both Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton have seen a jump in targets per route run when Dart’s not pressured this season to at least 24.7% for each. It’s huge, especially against a Bears defense that gave up 17-plus PPR points to three Bengals receivers last week. Theo Johnson’s also in play — a tight end has scored 10.8-plus PPR against Chicago in three of its past four, and the lone game one didn’t Mark Andrews and Charlie Kolar combined for 14.4.
STARTS: Jaxson Dart, Caleb Williams, Kyle Monangai, Rome Odunze, Wan’Dale Robinson (low-end No. 2 PPR WR)FLEX: D.J. Moore, Darius SlaytonSITS: Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (desperation RBs), Theo Johnson (high-end No. 2 TE), Colston Loveland (desperation TE), Bears DST, Giants DST
Expect a low-scoring game here, which is how most Texans games go. Houston brings a lot of pass rush pressure but struggle to rack up a ton of sacks. Behind that D-line is one of the best secondaries in football; only eight touchdowns have been caught on them and half were by wide receivers. The only two receivers with more than 80 yards against the Texans? Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua, both of whom had 11-plus targets. This is not the matchup to trust Jakobi Meyers in his first game with the Jaguars in. As for Parker Washington, his nine-plus targets in two straight games offers some hope that he can be just the third receiver to have 10-plus PPR points while playing at least 40% of his snaps in the slot against the Texans.
STARTS: Nico Collins, Travis Etienne (No. 2 RB), Dalton Schultz, Texans DST (at TEN in Week 11)FLEX: Parker Washington (high-end PPR flex), Woody Marks SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills, Dalton Schultz (high-end No. 2 PPR TE), Nick Chubb, Bhayshul Tuten, Christian Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson, Brenton Strange (stash!), Jaguars DST (high-end No. 2 DST)
With Jaelan Phillips now in Philly and Chop Robinson unsure to play, it’s especially hard to see how the Dolphins can rush Josh Allen and slow down the Bills offense down. Miami couldn’t hang with the Bills back in Week 3 when they did have Phillips (and Tyreek Hill), so it’s unlikely they can hang now. Their best bet is to run the ball with both De’Von Achane and Ollie Gordon to try and take advantage of a defense that’s allowed 4.9 yards per rush over its past four games excluding garbage time. That may keep the Dolphins close in the first half but it’s easy to see the Bills pull away in the second half, potentially with their own run game as Miami’s let up 5.3 yards per rush in its past five. Buffalo has scored 30-plus on Miami in three straight.
MUST-STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, De’Von AchaneSTARTS: Jaylen Waddle, Dalton Kincaid, Bills DST FLEX: Khalil Shakir (PPR)SITS: Tua Tagovailoa, Ollie Gordon, Greg Dulcich, Malik Washington, Ray Davis, Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, Ty Johnson, Dolphins DST
I thought J.J. McCarthy played much better than expected last week in a hostile environment against a really good Lions pass rush. A rushing touchdown made all the difference in Fantasy but his mobility out of the pocket was again a much-needed asset to help the Vikings pull off the win. He’ll have an easier matchup this week versus a Ravens defense that’s struggled to get pass rush pressure rate higher than 27.6% on quarterbacks for five straight weeks (eight total sacks). I don’t view the addition of journeyman Dre’Mont Jones to be a major difference-maker for Baltimore, and as long as the Vikings offensive line holds up then McCarthy should be in position to make some throws to his top receivers while also utilizing Aaron Jones out of the backfield. MUST-STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Justin Jefferson (No. 2 WR)STARTS: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Aaron Jones (low-end No. 2 RB)FLEX: Jordan Addison SITS: J.J. McCarthy, T.J. Hockenson (high-end No. 2 TE), Jalen Nailor, Rashod Bateman (desperation WR), Jordan Mason, Ravens DST, Vikings DST
Obviously there have been some wholesale changes to the Jets defense this week. Cleveland would be nuts not to attack on the ground considering Quinnen Williams’ departure, safety Andre Cisco’s absence and Quincy Williams’ benching. With those guys the Jets allowed 4.0 yards per carry, two touchdowns and a 4.3% explosive run rate over 16 carries — not too bad. Without them I just don’t think the Jets have enough beyond Jamien Sherwood and Malachi Moore to make a lot of stops. Both Sherwood and Moore will be part of the coverage assigned to the Browns tight ends as well, and both have been pretty good at making tackles and limiting yards after the catch. That’ll be crucial since both Harold Fannin (23.9%) and David Njoku (25.6%) have the two highest target per route run rates among pass-catchers with Dillon Gabriel this season. Both should be busy. MUST-STARTS: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall (No. 2 RB)STARTS: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin Jr., David Njoku, Browns DSTSITS: Justin Fields (high-end No. 2 QB), Dillon Gabriel, Mason Taylor (high-end No. 2 TE), Tyler Johnson, Isaiah Davis, Adonai Mitchell (deep stash), Dylan Sampson, Jerome Ford, Jets DST
Two games ago both Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka didn’t look right in the Bucs’ lopsided loss at the Lions. One game ago the Bucs defense helped them build a lead on the Saints and the offense opted for a slow-paced, run-heavy approach over just nine drives in a blowout win. This is to suggest that we haven’t seen the Bucs offense look like themselves since Week 6, and even then they leaned on the run. New England’s run defense has been amazing, holding RBs over their past five games excluding garbage time to 3.0 yards per carry with zero rush TDs and a 1.4% explosive rush rate allowed. That’s insanely good. However, the Patriots pass rush hasn’t been dominant since their win over the Titans and the Bucs offensive line should not only be rested but deeper with tackle Luke Goedeke having a chance to return. Christian Gonzalez’s presence would help the defense in a big way, especially against Egbuka, but even if he plays this feels like a bounce-back game for Baker Mayfield since he should have to do a lot of passing.
STARTS: Drake Maye, Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson and Rachaad White (both low-end No. 2 RBs), Patriots DST (low-end DST)FLEX: Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, Tez JohnsonSITS: Cade Otton (borderline No. 1/2 TE), Hunter Henry, Sean Tucker (stash), Terrell Jennings (desperation RB), Kyle Williams (deep stash), Buccaneers DST
Jacoby Brissett has been great in his past three starts and has conquered a good pass rush already this year, but playing at Seattle will be very difficult. The Seahawks, a zone-heavy defense, tends to consistently get pass rush pressure without blitzing. That’s a big problem for Brissett, who when pressured has a 44.2% completion rate, 6.0 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns and a drop in catchable pass attempts from 95.7% to 67.4%. It’ll be even worse for his run game as the Seahawks have been unreal against the run in their past four games, so it’s fair to expect Brissett to throw a lot. That volume could result in some high numbers, but some high turnovers too. Just two QBs have scored more than 20.8 Fantasy points on the Seahawks, and both faced them with not just cornerback Devon Witherspoon out but other Seahawks defensive starters missing the game. They’re expected to be healthy for Week 10. This is a good week to avoid Brissett if you can since he has much more downside than usual.Arizona’s defense is healthy and had many good moments last week at Dallas but still couldn’t wrangle a pass rush pressure rate higher than 36%, which was their second-highest mark in a game this year. That should bode well for Sam Darnold, who has scored at least 18.1 Fantasy points in five of six games when he’s been pressured under 40% of the time with 20.7 points in four of those five. And it absolutely helps him to have Rashid Shaheed, a downfield receiver who played in this same offensive system in 2024. Shaheed should be acclimated quickly and may alter how defenses plot against the Seahawks, including how they approach the Seattle run game. No longer can defenses key in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and take their chances with other Seahawks pass-catchers without paying. It should mean more light boxes for Seattle to run into and, theoretically, better efficiency for their running backs. Better blocking would help. Arizona’s run defense remained suspect last week and could be ripe for some modest numbers versus Seattle’s rushing duo. I think Darnold can be pretty good, but the Cardinals pass defense deserves at least a little credit, so don’t expect a huge game. MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey McBrideSTARTS: Marvin Harrison Jr., Kenneth Walker III (low-end No. 2 RB), Seahawks DSTFLEX: Zach Charbonnet (low-end flex)SITS: Sam Darnold (high-end No. 2 QB), Jacoby Brissett (bye-week QB), Michael Wilson, Emari Demercado (desperation RB), Zonovan Knight, Tory Horton, Cardinals DST
The 49ers took it to the Rams in their Week 5 matchup, overcoming their pass rush by getting the ball out fast (2.4 seconds on average by Mac Jones, who leaned on his connection with Kendrick Bourne to help break the Rams). Since then the 49ers defense has lost several more key starters and has struggled to develop a pass rush, and the Rams have improved their secondary and remain one of the best overall defenses in the league. There hasn’t been a blowout in the series since late October 2022 when the Niners won 31-14. Figure the 49ers scheme to keep things close with short passes again, but this time George Kittle and Jauan Jennings help out much more than Bourne. MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante AdamsSTARTS: Matthew Stafford, George KittleFLEX: Jauan Jennings SITS: Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Tyler Higbee, Blake Corum, Brian Robinson Jr., Rams DST (high-end No. 2 DST), 49ers DST
No Jayden Daniels, no Terry McLaurin, no quality pass rush and a Lions team coming to D.C. after a tough home loss. You couldn’t have come up with a worse nightmare scenario for the Commanders in Week 10. Against Seattle last week the Commanders got a pass rush pressure on 12.5% of the Seahawks’ dropbacks. That’s really bad and potentially a green light for Jared Goff to tee off against a Commanders secondary that prefers to play man-to-man coverage. Usually man-to-man coverage brings out the best target per route run rate in Amon-Ra St. Brown, not Sam LaPorta or Jameson Williams. And LaPorta’s worst games are typically when the Lions and especially Jahmyr Gibbs can’t get going (Week 9 is the most recent example). Starting LaPorta is something we’ll all do, but maybe don’t expect anything like last week. Gibbs should bounce back and even David Montgomery has a shot at another score in what figures to be a Lions blowout. With the Lions run defense so strong, this should be the game the Commanders lean into Deebo Samuel on screens and slants as a change-up to handing off. Problem is that Samuel has not looked like himself since coming back from injury a few weeks ago. He did get loose for a 19-yard catch-and-run last week but he otherwise was simply a short-area target. And it gets worse with Marcus Mariota under center: On the year Samuel has an 18.3% target per route run rate. By comparison, Terry McLaurin’s was 26.7% with Mariota, that’s really good. In games without McLaurin, Samuel’s rate has gone down to 12.5%! Samuel is OK as a PPR flex but I’d be nervous starting him even then. MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. BrownSTARTS: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Lions DSTFLEX: Deebo Samuel (PPR), Jameson Williams SITS: Marcus Mariota, Zach Ertz, Jeremy McNichols (desperation PPR RB), Jaylin Lane (deep stash), Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, Commanders DST
The Steelers edge rushers and defensive line were amped up last week, rattling the Colts offensive line and making big plays in the backfield both against Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. I’m not sure how much of that is transferable to this week’s matchup but it will absolutely help them that the Chargers won’t have Joe Alt at left tackle. Many Chargers metrics, including their offensive EPA and Justin Herbert’s passing efficiency, are starkly different without Alt on the field. That includes Herbert’s time to throw average (3.01 with Alt, 2.85 without Alt) and average depth of throw (9.1 air yards with Alt, 6.9 without Alt), both clearly hinting at Herbert throwing shorter so as to avoid getting shellacked. This figures to especially help not just Ladd McConkey but also Keenan Allen and Oronde Gadsden II while hurting Quentin Johnston. We’ve already seen the Steelers allow 15-plus PPR points to multiple wide receivers in four games this year (including last week!), and they’ve given up at least 9.8 half-PPR points to tight ends in five of their past seven. Expect Herbert to get the ball out quickly to short-area targets. MUST-STARTS: Ladd McConkeySTARTS: Justin Herbert, Jaylen Warren, Kimani Vidal (low-end No. 2 RB), Oronde Gadsden II, DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen (low-end No. 2 WR), Chargers DST (low-end DST) FLEX: Quentin JohnstonSITS: Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Austin III (desperation WR), Kenneth Gainwell, Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, Steelers DST (tough matchups until maybe Week 15)
All season long, Jordan Love’s Achilles heel has been pass rush pressure. He has yet to throw a touchdown under pressure, has completed just 37.7% of his throws when pressured, has a catchable attempt rate of 68.8% when he’s pressured and averages a weak 4.7 yards per attempt when pressured. And now he’ll take on an Eagles defense that was already better than league average in pass rush pressure rate and added edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who has experience working in this specific defensive scheme. It sure doesn’t help that Tucker Kraft, the guy with an 18.7% target per route run rate when Love’s been pressured, is out for the year. MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Josh JacobsSTARTS: DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST FLEX: Romeo Doubs (high-end flex), Christian Watson SITS: Jordan Love, Luke Musgrave, Matthew Golden, Emanuel Wilson, Packers DST
2025-11-06 03:13:06
