This weekend could be the one where USC finally proves that it can cover the road. The Week 10 may also be an occasion for Texas, to show the college football world they are worth all the hype. I have my doubts though.Here is how I am betting the upcoming college football games.This site may contain affiliate links. FOX Sports could be compensated if you sign up for a service or place a bet. Learn more about Sports Betting at FOX Sports. 23 USC @ NebraskaLincoln Riley is in his third-and-ahalf season at USC. His team has been the road favorite in 12 games outside California. Riley’s Trojans have failed to cover a single one of those 12 games outside the state. USC played three road matches in 2025. Of those, two were favorites. The Trojans beat Purdue but didn’t cover. A few weeks later, they lost to Illinois as nearly a touchdown favorite.SC doesn’t cover these games for a few reasons and the first reason is that the team doesn’t play a brand of football that translates well on the road. The USC offense is first in the country in efficiency but just doesn’t finish drives as well away from home. Although competition is important, the run game of USC averages more than seven yards for each carry when at home. This number drops to just 3.5 yards on the road. Last season, the Trojans’ average yards per carry were 6.15 at home and only 4.19 on the roads. Their offense is far worse on third down, in pass protection, and their quarterback sees their completion percentage drop 16%.You get the picture.USC’s defense has just never been good enough to win against decent offenses when it is not at home. The Trojans haven’t been big enough and they don’t stop the run. They rank 115th when it comes to rushing success. They allow nearly two yards before contact — which is near the bottom of the sport. They can rush the passer, but when they can’t stop the run, they don’t get to rush the passer. Nebraska’s offense feels hard to pin down. The Cornhuskers experience waves of success and defeat. They do score points at home and are much better. The 35th place in terms of points per drive is matched by the 37th place in terms of yards per drive. They do allow sacks but don’t allow a ton of pressures. Quarterback Dylan Raiola must avoid mistakes because USC’s defense does thrive on forcing turnovers. If Nebraska can run the ball well, the Cornhuskers should score.I just need USC to prove it can cover this game and I will continue to wager against it until it does.PICK: Nebraska (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outrightWashington State @ Oregon StateI don’t get this number, so either I’m a dummy or no one is paying attention to this game. This season, the Cougars’ coaching staff and their roster were decimated. They started off the year with a slow start. The Cougars barely beat Idaho and won at San Diego State, but then were thrashed by North Texas and Washington. After a re-grouping, they beat Colorado State before losing close games to Ole Miss and Virginia. Both times, the Cougars were in front at the end of the fourth quarter. After these two road games, the Cougars beat Toledo 28-7 in their home game. In those four games, the Cougars’ defense only allowed 14 points per match and allowed just 3 and 7 points against two of the worst offenses. Washington State has had a volatile offense, but lately it has performed better. It scored more points in October and gained more rushing and passing yards. I like how WSU is playing.On the other hand, Oregon State is … not good. The Beavers have a 1-7 record after their win over Lafayette two weeks back. The Beavers were playing their first game following the firing of Trent Bray as coach. The Beavers rank 99th and 125th respectively in terms of yards per play for offense and defense. I don’t think a bye week is going to change their personnel and their quarterback. The offensive line of their team is at the bottom for the number of pressures, blown blocks and so on. I think that this number is incorrect. The WSU defense creates havoc in enough plays. I’ll take the Cougars.PICK: Washington State (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points No. 9 Vanderbilt @ No. 20 TexasIt’s Week 10 and Texas gets to host its first conference home game against a 7-1 Vanderbilt squad. This is Vandy’s fourth straight game against a ranked opponent. The Commodores were defeated by Alabama but won at LSU and Missouri. Are they prepared for another game of this magnitude?The Longhorns are not what we assumed they’d be this season but are still 6-2. In Week 1, they lost at Ohio State and in Week 6, at Florida. They won against Oklahoma by a score of 23-6 the week following Florida. Then they went on to win at Kentucky and Mississippi State. Texas wins because of its defense. The Horns have the seventh-best points per driving, the 12th best yards per drive and are 21st in third down. They don’t have much of a weakness and this will be a test for the Vandy offense. The Commodores’ offensive line is filled with a bunch of maulers, and that’s one reason Vanderbilt is better this season. Diego Pavia has one of the most versatile dual-threats among QBs. He’s the leading rusher for this offense, which is fun but also not an actual good thing. Vandy’s offense is not balanced and Pavia is the main reason for that. Vanderbilt scored just 17 against Missouri last week, compared to 31 points at LSU. I don’t believe Vandy is going to score much at Texas either.It’s still unclear if Texas is with or without quarterback Arch Manning, as he’s in concussion protocol. It doesn’t matter whether Arch Manning is playing or not, the Longhorns won’t be able to score in this game. Their offensive line continues to have trouble and Texas can’t rush or pass very well. The Longhorns’ rushing and pass success rates are both ranked 77th. Vanderbilt’s defense is strong enough to put pressure on the quarterback. Texas’s offense will be limited by the defense, as it limits explosive plays. I’m a fan of the Under.PICK : 44.5 combined combined points for both teamsGeoff Schwartz, NFL analyst with FOX Sports. He played in the NFL eight seasons for five different teams. He was the right tackle for University of Oregon during three seasons. His senior year, he was selected to second team All Pac-12. Want great stories delivered straight to your inbox, follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz. To receive personalized daily newsletters, create or log into your FOX Sport account and follow teams, leagues and players!
2025-10-30 19:09:39
2025 College Football Week 10 Picks: Back Low-Scoring Vanderbilt-Texas Tilt
