Who’s on the verge of a 2025 Big Ten Championship Game appearance? Looking at more than a dozen tiebreakers for the Big Ten Championship Game, the top-ranked Ohio State team and the No. The Hoosiers are cruising through the Big Ten and will make it easy for conference officials if they can cruise next month. However, the Buckeyes could face some pressure with just one conference loss. Last season, the Big Ten had four teams that made it to the playoffs. This number could be equaled in a few weeks if Michigan or Iowa can win their next game and reach a tenth victory.
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Brad Crawford
Here is a complete look at the teams’ paths to the Big Ten Championship Game in 2025 as we enter the final month before the postseason:
Indiana (8-0 and 5-0)Clearest Path: Cignetti has the best stretch of games in his coaching career to end the season. Indiana’s last three opponents have a combined record of 1-17 this season in conference play. The Hoosiers are guaranteed to play in Indianapolis if they avoid a massive upset. Hoosiers only beat the Nittany Lions two times in their history, but this year is different. The better team is Indiana this time despite Penn State ranking No. The Hoosiers’ road victory at Oregon, one of the most impressive wins in college football so far this year, has put them ahead of their rivals for the league title. This is an important tiebreaker if both teams have one conference loss and the Iowa win in the last second on September 27.
Ohio State (7-0 and 4-0)Clearest path: Whatever Ryan Day is telling his team to do this season, it seems to be working. They have been a stout defense and have outclassed all other teams. They’ve dominated in conference play and will be multi-touchdown favorites against Penn State, UCLA, Purdue and Rutgers next month before the potential fly in the ointment — Michigan. The Buckeyes have dominated conference play, and they will be multiple-touchdown favorites next month against Penn State and UCLA before facing Rutgers, Purdue, and Rutgers. Michigan could be the fly in the ointment.
Oregon (7-1, 4-1)Clearest Path: The Ducks are in need of help. The Hoosiers, Buckeyes and Oregon are all unbeaten in conference play heading into week 10 and Oregon has already lost at home to one of these titans. Dan Lanning would love to see Indiana or Ohio State lose twice if they want a chance at defending their conference title. This is unlikely, and it would require a World War III in the conference if a bunch of bad teams suddenly played well. This would result in a three team tie. Oregon would have the advantage since Michigan would be the winner as the Wolverines hold the head-to-head matchup tiebreaker against the Buckeyes.
Michigan (6-2)Clearest Path: Control What you can control. Sherrone is going to have to tell his team that as they enter the final stretch. If Michigan can win against Purdue (and possibly Northwestern or Maryland), then they may be able to secure a spot at Indianapolis in the home finale with Ohio State. The Wolverines still do not have control over their own fate, even if they are victorious. Michigan must win its final four games, including a win over the Buckeyes (for the fifth consecutive year) and USC must lose another game since the Trojans have a tiebreaker based on head-to-head. Oregon must also lose to Minnesota and Washington to help the Wolverines avoid a tiebreaker with three teams and one loss. Wolverines fans will not be concerned about losing any tiebreakers to reach Indianapolis, as long as they beat Ohio State.
Iowa (6-2-4-1)Clearest Path: The Hawkeyes have a chance to be unbeaten in Big Ten this season if they win a game against Indiana late. They are also ranked among the top 10 teams. Really. The Hawkeyes can blow away most of the current projections if they stay hot and run the table. What would happen if the Hawkeyes, Buckeyes, and Wolverines were all tied for second? Iowa would win because it has a better record than Michigan against their common opponents. The Wolverines have a 3-1 record (loss to USC) whereas Iowa’s is 4-0.
USC (5-2-3-1)Clearest Path: Do you think USC would like to have a second chance against Illinois? At this point, the Trojans’ only chance to make the top-tier of the Big Ten is because they blew a late lead. USC would play in Indianapolis, if the Trojans win 5-0 and Michigan defeats Ohio State Nov. 29, excluding Indiana. That would put USC in a three-way tie for second and gives the Trojans the nod due to their head-to-head win over the Wolverines.Tiebreaker talk: Getting to the playoff should be the goal for Lincoln Riley with a Big Ten title game appearance secondary. If USC is able to win out, and that includes victories over Iowa, Oregon, then the Trojans, with their 10 wins, should be considered by the committee when they meet for the final time in December.
2025-10-29 12:10:07
